توقيف متورط باعتداء على الجيش بعملية دهم في بحنين

May the new year bring you closer to your ultimate destination....
RIP dear Flamethrower

In the Spring, it looks like the Dae3g and Nusra will make a push from Arsal across the North toward Tripoli. This is Shia through Baalbek and Hermel, but once you get to Akkar and Tripoli, its Sunni dominated districts. Who will blunt this attack when it comes?? Hezbollah?? Hezbollah trying to hold Dae3g in Akkar is a non-starter. It will only cause the local population to rise up against Hezbollah and join Dae3g, giving it momentum as it pushes to the sea and Tripoli.
It is ONLY the Lebanese Army that can confront and hopefully defeat the anticipated Spring Offensive that Dae3g and Nusra are planning. This will require the revival of Lebanese state institutions, particularly the political institutions of the Presidency and Council of Ministers from which the LAF takes political direction.

Blocking the election of the Presidency has therefore placed the entire Lebanese Republic at risk, given the rising security threat. To the extent that Iran has directed that the Institutions of the Lebanese State remain down so as not to pose a threat to Hezbollah, which is stretched thin right now, circumstances in the Spring will heighten Hezbollah's precarious situation in Lebanon if the State Political Institutions are not restored and the LAF brought up to full strength so as to meet this challenge. M14 and Mustaqbel's support of the LAF as it takes on Dae3g will be critical to holding the Akkar and Tripoli populations with the State rather than moving over to the Dae3g.

We have Iraq before our eyes where the heavy handed myopic Shia political parties not only excluded by repressed the Iraqi Sunni and drove them to Dae3g in the Western Provinces. Lebanon's political institutions and power sharing arrangements, if allowed to function, guard against this type of outcome as we saw in Iraq. If Hezbollah and its patron in Iran are so narrow minded in their thinking that they let this Lebanese System of checks and balances remain paralyzed, then their grab for power in Lebanon will become only ashes in their mouths, as Lebanon will become lost.