موديز تخفض تصنيف القطاع المصرفي اللبناني الى "سلبي"

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خفضت وكالة موديز الدولية الاثنين تصنيفها للقطاع المصرفي اللبناني من "مستقر" الى "سلبي"، لاسباب عدة أبرزها الاضطرابات في العالم العربي وخصوصا في سوريا.

واعتبرت موديز أن اسبابا عدة ساهمت في هذا التراجع، منها البطء في النمو، وكون الاصول والقروض المصرفية معرضة للتأثر بمخاطر ما يجري من اضطرابات سياسية في عدد من الدول الاقليمية، او بطء في النمو في عدد آخر منها كالاردن ومصر.

وقالت موديز: "رغم أن القروض المتعثرة شهدت تحسنا بين العام 2006 والعام 2010، الا ان هذا الامر مرشح للتغير".

وتابع البيان الصادر عن الوكالة: "اضافة الى الوضع الداخلي المتراجع، فان المصارف وخصوصا الكبرى منها، معرضة لتأثيرات ما يجري في بلدان تشهد عمليات انتقال سياسية او اضطرابات، خصوصا في سوريا ومصر".

وترتبط هذه التأثيرات بتغير اسعار العملات ونقص السيولة والاستثمارات الخارجية في الدول التي تعاني من اضطرابات.

وتوقعت موديز تراجعا في النشاط الاقتصادي وانخفاضا في نمو القروض، وهو ما سيؤثر على ربحية المصارف.

ولفتت الى أن القطاع المصرفي اللبناني يتأثر بشكل كبير ايضا بالدين العام المقدر بأكثر من 50 مليار دولار.

الا أن الوكالة اشارت الى أن من شأن توافر السيولة في المصارف اللبنانية، وحجم الايداعات مدعوما من تحويلات اللبنانيين من الخارج والتي شكلت 22% من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي في العام 2010، ان يقلصا المخاطر.

وذكرت أن التحويلات من اللبنانيين المهاجرين "اثبتت انتظامها تاريخيا رغم ارتفاع مخاطر هروب رأس المال خلال فترات الاضطراب السياسي".

التعليقات 5
Default-user-icon moody's blues (ضيف) 17:06 ,2011 كانون الأول 05

It's uncanny every time Aoun get his grubby little hands on any part of the Lebanese government someone unequivocally will have to use some Der General bathroom cleaner on "the fan" as Der General is making a beeline to the nearest embassy without telling his fans.

Default-user-icon Gebran Sons for Cedar Revolution II in 2013 (ضيف) 20:26 ,2011 كانون الأول 05

The downgrade will cost tens of billions in interest hike compliment of Hizbollah/Aoun, in addition to $15 billion for Hizbollah's 2006 War, and over $30 billion in zero economic growth for five years at a time the region was booming and our growth should exceed 7% per year. Greater loss is transformation of our free entrepreneurial system into a state-controlled planned economy suffocating under bureaucratic incompetence and political corruption. Hizbollah is sucking the life out of freedom and democracy and FPM is sucking the life of our economy by its political mafia that perfected the art of influence peddling, blackmails and virulent corruption under disguise of reform. Hizbollah and FPM are adopting Syrian/Iranian economic model where public institutions are subject to political mafia benefiting people in power and click of profiteers. Where is accountability and transparent democracy. Hizb and Aoun duo are a lethal poison to our freedom, democracy, economy and prosperity.

Default-user-icon GBD (ضيف) 15:45 ,2011 كانون الأول 06

You can try and twist this story to suit your political views because you probably know little else.

The truth is that the incompetence of the rating agencies was one of the main reasons for the financial crisis that has plagued the world for the last 5 years. In fact it it a little uglier than incompetence; banks and other institutions "convinced" the agencies to give their products ridiculously optimistic ratings (e.g. AAA rating for Barclays' CDOs 5-6 years ago).

Rating agencies have lost all credibility. When it comes to negative outlook, you should be looking at the banking sectors of most European Countries, as for Lebanon, its banking sector is more than just stable, it is good.

Banks in Lebanon are highly capitalized, conservative in their risk taking and have learnt from previous disasters such as the Intra Bank collapse and the "Civil" war. Moreover, Riad Salameh has been doing quite a decent job as the Head of the Central Banks.

Default-user-icon GBD (ضيف) 15:45 ,2011 كانون الأول 06

You can try and twist this story to suit your political views because you probably know little else.

The truth is that the incompetence of the rating agencies was one of the main reasons for the financial crisis that has plagued the world for the last 5 years. In fact it it a little uglier than incompetence; banks and other institutions "convinced" the agencies to give their products ridiculously optimistic ratings (e.g. AAA rating for Barclays' CDOs 5-6 years ago).

Rating agencies have lost all credibility. When it comes to negative outlook, you should be looking at the banking sectors of most European Countries, as for Lebanon, its banking sector is more than just stable, it is good.

Banks in Lebanon are highly capitalized, conservative in their risk taking and have learnt from previous disasters such as the Intra Bank collapse and the "Civil" war. Moreover, Riad Salameh has been doing quite a decent job as the Head of the Central Banks.

Default-user-icon Ana (ضيف) 21:18 ,2011 كانون الأول 06

We are writing a blog on corrupt practises at Moody's. Please check it out and give us your feedback.
http://blogmichaelray.blogspot.com/