Analysts: More Unrest Likely for Gridlocked Lebanon

Politically paralyzed by deep divisions exacerbated by the war in neighboring Syria, Lebanon is likely to see a continuing cycle of political violence, analysts say.

On Thursday, four people were killed and dozens others wounded in a bomb blast in the Beirut southern suburb of Haret Hreik, a stronghold of Hizbullah, less than a week after the assassination of former finance minister Mohammed Shatah, a member of the March 14 coalition.

The attacks were the latest in a string of incidents linked to the Syrian conflict that have strained Lebanon's fragile multi-sectarian political system.

"I expect an escalation of the deterioration in the security situation," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University in Beirut (AUB).

"The explosions are a direct consequence of the situation in Syria and finding a solution to the crisis in Syria is facing a deadlock," he told Agence France Presse.

The effects have been far-reaching for Lebanon's political scene, traditionally fractious but now increasingly dysfunctional.

The government effectively collapsed nine months ago, with the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Miqati, and lengthy negotiations on the formation of a consensus replacement have gone nowhere.

Parliamentary elections have been postponed, and there are doubts about whether a presidential vote scheduled for May will go ahead.

At the root of the tensions lies a deep division between Hizbullah and the March 14 camp.

The split has only widened with Hizbullah's decision to fight alongside Syria's President Bashar Assad against an uprising that is supported by many Lebanese Sunnis.

"There is a deep underlying split (that is) obvious in this country," said Karim Makdisi, a professor of political studies at AUB.

"It comes in phases. The underlying issue remains, and then when there's a particular regional issue, this stuff comes back up to the surface."

Since the war in Syria began, Hizbullah has seen its southern Beirut stronghold targeted in three bomb attacks, along with a double suicide bombing that hit the Iranian embassy in Beirut.

The attacks illustrate a growing trend of Sunni radicalization in Lebanon fueled by the Syrian conflict and heightened sectarian rhetoric, said Sahar Atrash, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.

"The traditional leaders of the Islamists... are losing in favor of those who are more radical," she said.

"In the view of many they proved not to be strong enough to act against Hizbullah," she said, with the conflict in Syria adding a "new layer to the whole Sunni-Shiite divide."

Lebanon fought a civil war between 1975 and 1990 and its delicate sectarian balance is reflected in a complex political arrangement that has regularly generated political crises.

In March, PM Miqati resigned, effectively bringing down the government, but ongoing disagreements between Hizbullah and the March 14 movement have prevented even the formation of an interim replacement government.

Later this year, President Michel Suleiman's term expires and parliament should be called upon to elect a replacement for the office.

The candidate is usually chosen by consensus, which will be hard to come by in such a polarized environment.

"I don't see the two parties sitting at the table, agreeing on a government or a president," said Atrash.

"The gap is so deep and the issues at stake for both parties are so important, so existential in a way, that none of them would be willing to make a compromise."

Makdisi described all Lebanon's key political players as demonstrating "incredible irresponsibility."

"I don't think there's any strategy and I think that all sides are just playing a game of chicken," he said.

But he also pointed to the regional influence at work in Lebanon, where Saudi Arabia holds sway over much of the Sunni community, while its arch-enemy Iran arms, funds and trains Hizbullah.

The only solution for Lebanon is if "the Saudis say okay we're going to move towards some kind of agreement, they get together with the Iranians and they strike some kind of deal."

In the meantime, Lebanon's stalemate appears as intractable as Syria's war.

"I think the country will be on hold until after an agreement is reached on Syria." Khashan said.