Ankara Attack Aimed to Tip Turkey over the Edge

The perpetrators of the worst attack in Turkey's modern history appear intent on seeking to throw the country into chaos by provoking already explosive existing tensions, analysts say.

The twin blasts carried out by suspected suicide bombers on Saturday ripped through a gathering of leftist and pro-Kurdish activists outside Ankara's main train station, killing at least 97 people.

The rally, backed by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and other left-wing groups, had been called to demand peace as the government wages a relentless assault against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the Islamic State extremist group was the prime suspect in the attack, although the authorities have yet to give specific conclusions.

The attack came as Turkey battles both IS and the PKK -- two groups who are themselves bitterly opposed -- in its biggest recent security crisis with the risk of spillover from the Syria conflict looming large.

Analysts say that whoever actually carried out the attack, they appear alarmingly determined to exploit the current tensions to create a major confrontation.

In the aftermath of the attack, Kurds accused the government of responsibility, pro-government media alleged the PKK was to blame and thousands took to the streets in protest.

"I think with the attack the perpetrators are hoping to induce the PKK, or its rogue and more radical youth elements, to continue fighting in Turkey," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

Kurdish militants had on Saturday announced a de-facto ceasefire ahead of the key elections on November 1 where the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is seeking to win enough votes to form a single party government.

Nihat Ali Ozcan, security expert at Ankara-based TEPAV think-tank, said the Saturday's bombing appeared the result of the fighting between IS and the PKK's Syrian Kurdish allies spilling over into Turkey.

"Both groups have active supporters in Turkey. This is another episode in the two bitter foes' confrontation on Turkish soil," he told AFP.

The war between IS and PKK also rekindled fears of a return to chaos of the 1970s, when thousands were killed as right and left-wing groups engaged in street fighting and the security forces stepped in.

In an interview with Italian daily La Repubblica, Turkey's Nobel-winning novelist Orhan Pamuk said he feared a return to civil war.

"Certainly I fear that. Especially in the 1970s the streets of my city (Istanbul) witnessed a real conflict between people of the left and those of the right," said Pamuk.

"Anyone over 35 has terrible memories of that period and never wants to go back there."

Davutoglu brushed off fears of a civil war and bluntly told Turkish television this week: "Turkey will not turn into Syria."

Berkay Mandiraci, researcher at the International Crisis Group think tank in Istanbul, said it was essential the truth over the bombings came out to minimize further tensions.

"The risks of new attacks is really continuing and the polarization of Turkey is increasing now, right before the elections," he said.

"That's why it's important that these links are brought out by the government so that other possible attacks are also prevented."

The latest attack came after a suicide bombing blamed on IS in the Turkish town of Suruc, on the Syrian border, killed 34 people in July. It also targeted mainly young peace activists.

Cagaptay said the bombing in Ankara looked "eerily" similar to the Suruc attack.

"So, early indicators would point at ISIS (IS) as the culprit which has the most to benefit from full-blown Turkey-PKK war," he told AFP.

Max Abrahms, professor of political science at Northeastern University and a member at the US Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, said in the current climate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have to tread carefully ahead of the November polls.

After such attacks "national publics tend to throw their backing behind the leader, giving the executive a freer hand to crush the perpetrators militarily," he told AFP.

But the latest attacks "will weaken -- not strengthen, Erdogan if the public blames him for the violence due to his controversial stances against ISIS or the PKK."