Short Shopping Lists Expected at Dubai Airshow
All eyes will be on the Gulf's booming airlines and how deeply they dig into their wallets when the Middle East's main airshow opens in Dubai next week, though few are expecting a flood of blockbuster deals.
That's because the region's heavyweights — Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways — already boast long lists of planes on order designed to fatten their young fleets for years to come.
Emirates and Qatar have hinted that they still have an appetite for more aircraft, and lesser-known regional aviation companies are also expected to announce new deals. But analysts say the mammoth hauls that came out of Dubai before the world financial crisis in 2008 are likely a thing of the past.
"If we look at the backlog, the reality is there's already a huge amount of orders coming from that region," said Rupinder Vig, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. "You shouldn't expect a huge amount" more.
One carrier that won't be announcing any deals next week — at least not in Dubai — is Etihad Airways, based just down the road in the Emirati capital Abu Dhabi. The government-run carrier, which has a 100 planes on order and options for dozens more, is sending just a small delegation to the show.
In a statement, Etihad said that "various executives" will be in Dubai, but no news conferences are planned because "we have no announcements to make."
Still, even modest deals — which in Gulf terms can be worth several billions of dollars — would be welcomed by Boeing Co., Airbus and other plane manufacturers as they look to pad their order books before the end of the year.
One of the carriers most likely to spend big is Qatar Airways. Its colorful chief executive, Akbar al-Baker, told reporters last month that his fast-growing airline expects to unveil a multibillion dollar order at the show, which opens Sunday.
"Qatar Airways will have a formidable presence" at the Dubai show, said the state-run Qatar News Agency.
The Doha, Qatar-based carrier in June bought six Boeing 777 long-haul aircraft in a $1.7 billion deal at the Paris Air Show, this year's main industry's main event. But it didn't place a far larger order for Airbus' narrow-body A320neo as some in the industry had been expecting. That has prompted speculation that it may be saving plans for the single-aisle plane for Dubai.
Qatar Airways has also signaled it plans to buy more A380 superjumbos to add to the five it already has on order, and in the past it has shown interest in medium-range jets from Canada's Bombardier Inc.
Hometown host Emirates may also be looking to add to its fleet next week. The carrier is owned by Dubai's government and run by the uncle of the city-state's ruler, who is eager to rebuild Dubai's international image as the emirate works its way out from its high-profile debt crisis.
Emirates is the Middle East's biggest airline and, with a fleet 160 planes strong, is increasingly stealing market share from long-haul carriers in Europe and Asia.
It already has 191 planes on order from Boeing and Airbus worth some $66 billion at list prices, including 74 of the double-decker A380. So while it may announce a deal or two, they are unlikely to significantly reshape its order tally.
Organizers say this year's Dubai Airshow will be the biggest yet, with more than 55,000 visitors expected.
The biennial show generated a whopping $155 billion in orders in 2007, with Gulf carriers signing up for some 140 planes on the first day alone. The last show two years ago was subdued by comparison, bringing in only a handful of deals from small carriers such as Ethiopian Airlines and Yemenia Airlines worth a combined $14 billion.
"It was never going to reach the heights of the boom days, but that's the world in general," said Alison Weller, managing director of F&E Aerospace, which organizes the show.
Weller expects civil aviation deals will again account for the majority of orders announced at this year's event, which is also an important showcase for U.S. and European defense manufacturers looking for new business from friendly and rich Arab customers.
France's Dassault Aviation has for years been trying to close a deal to sell dozens of Rafale fighter jets, which played a key role in NATO's mission over Libya, to the United Arab Emirates. It will no doubt use the airshow to renew its sales pitch. But Vig said he would be surprised to see the Gulf nation announce a deal this week.
F-18 and F-15 fighters, C-130J transport planes and Apache attack helicopters will be among the military aircraft on display at the show. Also on hand will be Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner, which is making its debut in the Middle East.
Last week, Boeing confirmed that aircraft leasing company Dubai Aerospace Enterprise has canceled orders for five 747-8 freighters, converting the orders to Boeing 777s instead.
In August 2010, the company canceled orders for 25 Boeing planes, including 15 787s. Earlier this year it was reported to have canceled all of its Airbus orders.
