Senior Israeli official: Campaign in Lebanon is approaching

A senior Israeli security official told Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday that "the campaign in Lebanon is getting closer, although the exact timing has not yet been determined."

According to the security source, Israel faces two scenarios: “reaching a deal (with Hamas over a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange) or collapsing the negotiations and quickly entering a direct war against Hezbollah.”

According to the senior official, the first scenario is “reaching a deal, a situation in which Israel will be able to choose its preferred timing for future action against Hezbollah targets.”

“Within this scenario, there is hope that Hezbollah will refrain from firing during this period, which will allow the IDF (Israeli army) to complete its preparations in an optimal way and plan the next moves carefully. The clear advantage of this scenario is the possibility of operating under more favorable conditions for Israel,” the official said.

“The second scenario is the collapse of the negotiations (with Hamas). In such a situation, it is expected that Hezbollah will continue firing at the northern settlements, which may force Israel to enter into action more quickly, under less favorable conditions for it,” the official added.

The security source emphasized that the Israeli army is in “the final stages of completing preparations for the possible campaign.”

“The comprehensive preparations include extensive ground preparations, alongside preparation for all possible types of attack. According to him, the army is ready for any scenario and completes preparations both on the ground and in the air. The extent of the preparations indicates the seriousness of the intentions on the part of Israel and the understanding that the next campaign could be complex and challenging,” Channel 12 said.

The security source noted that Israel is responding to Hezbollah's fire and is hitting the organization "in an unpleasant way." However, he emphasized that despite the tactical “successes,” a significant strategic achievement has not yet been achieved.

The security source also emphasized that the damage caused to Hezbollah is “significant.”

“The raiding force of the Radwan force, the organization's elite unit, was damaged, and dramatic damage was caused to the infrastructure along the border. This damage to Hezbollah's operational capabilities may affect its ability to operate in the future,” the source said.

“Furthermore, most of the Radwan force retreated beyond the Litani River, which indicates the significant impact of the IDF's operations on the deployment of Hezbollah's forces,” the source added.

The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israeli residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly vowed to act to return its citizens through war or diplomatic action.

The cross-border violence has killed some 614 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 138 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, authorities have announced the deaths of at least 24 soldiers and 26 civilians.

Israel and Hezbollah had on August 25 exchanged heavy fire that briefly raised fears of an all-out war. On that day, Israel said around 100 warplanes launched airstrikes targeting hundreds of rocket launchers across southern Lebanon to thwart an imminent Hezbollah attack. Hezbollah for its part said it launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israeli military and security bases, including at a key intelligence base in Tel Aviv’s suburbs.

Hezbollah called the attack a response to the killing of one of its top commanders, Fouad Shukur, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs in July.

The August 25 exchange of fire did not set off a long-feared war, and the heavy firepower and lack of civilian casualties allowed both sides to claim a sort of victory and step back. But tensions remain high.

Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones at Israel shortly after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which was triggered by Hamas' surprise attack into Israel on Oct. 7. Hezbollah and Hamas are allies, each backed by Iran. Israel has responded with airstrikes.

Israel has vowed to bring quiet to the border to allow its citizens to return to their homes. It says it prefers to resolve the issue diplomatically through U.S. and other mediators but will use force if necessary. Hezbollah officials have said the group does not seek a wider war but is prepared for one.