Is Lebanon on the brink of normalizing ties with Israel?

As Lebanon negotiates sticking points with Israel after a 13-months-long war that ended with Israeli troops occupying five "strategic hills" in south Lebanon and frequent violations of a ceasefire reached in late November, the topic of normalizing relations with Israel have come to the spotlight. But will negotiations eventually lead to normalization?

An Israeli political source said that Israel wants to reach normalization with Lebanon. "We and the Americans think that this is possible after the changes that have occurred in Lebanon," the source told Israel’s Channel 12.

Lebanon for its part said the negotiations with Israel are "indirect", but Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri hinted that Israel is trying to drag Lebanon into "direct negotiations." Both Metri and Information Minister Paul Morkos said that Lebanon would not normalize with Israel.

Metri said Lebanon did not receive a direct call to sign a peace accord with Israel, but that there is pressure on some politicians and an unofficial push in the U.S. to pressure Lebanon into normalizing relations with Israel.

- LF says normalization not an option -

Lebanese Forces sources said that Hezbollah started using the term "normalization" in its media after Pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper warned that the U.S. is "dragging Lebanon into peace negotiations."

A source of the Lebanese Forces party told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Friday, that no Arab country can normalize with Israel before a Palestinian state is established. "Normalization is not an option for us," the source said, adding that the U.S. has called for the implementation of 1701, and not for normalization.

What is being proposed is a return to the 1949 Armistice Agreement - which ended the hostilities of the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the LF source and a senior Lebanese official said.

- What are the negotiations about? -

Deputy U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Morgan Ortagus said earlier this week that the U.S. will be "bringing together Lebanon and Israel for talks aimed at diplomatically resolving several outstanding issues between the two countries" - the release of Lebanese prisoners, the remaining disputed points along the Blue Line, and the remaining 5 points where Israeli forces are still deployed.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that representatives of the Israeli and Lebanese armies, the U.S. and France have agreed during a meeting of the ceasefire committee in Naqoura to "establish three joint working groups" aimed at resolving the three outstanding issues.

"Everything that is being said about these groups being a prelude to normalization is baseless," sources told Beirut-based pan-Arab TV station Al Mayadeen. Lebanon will not engage in any "direct" negotiations with Israel, the sources said.

- Past negotiations -

In 2022, Lebanon and Israel separately signed copies of a U.S.-mediated sea border deal after months of indirect talks.

Israel's then Prime Minister Yair Lapid claimed that the deal meant Lebanon de facto "recognizes the State of Israel, in a written agreement," but Lebanon and Hezbollah said the signing did not signal a recognition of Israel or a normalization of ties.

After several Arab-Israeli wars, Egypt was the first Arab state to recognize Israel diplomatically in 1979. It was followed by Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. In October 2023, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible normalization of relations with Israel, following the Israeli war on Gaza.