Doubts in Nigeria over President's Eligibility for Re-Election
Nigeria's ruling party has given President Goodluck Jonathan a free run for a second term of office at next year's elections but he faces a potential sticking point: is he even eligible?
At least two cases to stop Jonathan from standing are currently before the courts, citing a clause in the constitution that prevents anyone from swearing the oath of office more than twice.
The court ruling will be closely watched, with Jonathan yet to formally declare his candidacy as political parties position themselves for the February 14, 2015 vote.
"The argument to run or not to run is 50-50 until the Supreme Court rules on the matter," Festus Keyamo, a constitutional lawyer, told AFP.
"If you allow him to run (and he wins), he will have done 10 years, which is more than the constitutional limit of two (four-year) terms.
"Again, the constitution says you cannot run if you are a product of two previous elections but Jonathan has only been elected once. So, the Supreme Court has to resolve this legal technicality."
State governors and the national executive committee of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) this month unanimously endorsed Jonathan as its sole candidate, making other challengers unlikely.
The issue about Jonathan's eligibility for 2015 comes from his time as vice-president and is likely linked to the unwritten rule of rotating the presidency between Nigeria's north and south.
Jonathan, a Christian from the oil-producing south, was deputy to the northern Muslim Umaru Yar'Adua but took temporary charge after the latter fell ill and later died.
He swore the oath of office on May 6, 2010 to complete Yar'Adua's tenure. After securing a popular mandate at the last election, Jonathan was sworn in again on May 29, 2011.
The PDP was rocked last year by a wave of defections, mostly of governors from the Muslim-majority north, who claimed that Jonathan had agreed to only serve one term.
Yar'Adua's death robbed the north of the chance of two full terms of office, with the resulting power and influence as well as control over the distribution of Nigeria's oil revenue.
If Jonathan stands again next year and wins, the presidency will not "return" to the north until 2019 at the earliest.
Both the PDP and main opposition party All Progressives Congress (APC) have not commented officially and Jonathan may be waiting for the court ruling before announcing he will stand.
But legal experts said the row bears all the hallmarks of politics.
Lawyers bringing the case were acting "in bad faith" and "trying to promote a northern agenda", law professor Itse Sagay told the New Telegraph newspaper this week.
Dapo Thomas, a political analyst from Lagos State University, said only the court can resolve the issue of eligibility -- and Jonathan would have to comply if the ruling goes against him.
But he added that there were wider grounds for him not to stand.
"His performance in all the parameters is abysmal. If he has a conscience, he should ask himself what he has done to deserve another shot at the presidency." he said.
Jonathan was widely criticized for his initial mishandling of Boko Haram Islamists' mass kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls in April that drew worldwide attention.
On his watch, Nigeria may have become Africa's biggest economy based on gross domestic product but economically, Jonathan had been a "complete failure", Thomas added.
More than 60 percent of the population lives in extreme poverty while one in five is unemployed, with rates of joblessness running at nearly 38 percent among 15- to 24-year-olds, according to the World Bank and Nigerian government statistics.
Corruption remains endemic, despite repeated pledges to tackle it, while the Boko Haram insurgency is still raging after five years, despite a state of emergency being imposed in three northeast states.
"He should be honest enough to admit that he has failed the nation and allow another person to try his luck," said Thomas.
Source: Agence France Presse
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