For Republicans on Vote's Eve, U.S. Senate theirs to Lose
Republicans positioned themselves for a likely U.S. Senate takeover after Tuesday's elections, emboldened by polls that show them pulling ahead of President Barack Obama's Democrats in the battle for power in Washington.
Several battleground states like Alaska and North Carolina remained too close to call Monday, but with a number of factors tilting their way in recent days, Republicans were showing increased confidence in the home stretch of what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in years.
"The wind is at our backs," Senator Rand Paul, a potential 2016 Republican presidential candidate, told CNN's State of the Union show Sunday.
"I think people are ready for new leadership."
Republicans for months have hammered home their message that a vote for them is a vote against Obama.
"This is a referendum on the president," Paul told NBC's Meet the Press.
Republicans already hold the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are in play, and forecasters predict they will gain seats.
Three top forecasters now give Republicans between a 70 percent and 77 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Barely a day before voting places open, the Des Moines Register in the heartland state of Iowa put Republican Joni Ernst a full seven points ahead (51-44 percent) of congressman Bruce Braley, who is struggling to keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands.
"This race looks like it's decided," pollster J. Ann Selzer said.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, admitted Monday she was "very excited" about the poll.
"It just shows the momentum that we have here in Iowa," she told Fox News. "People are rejecting the failed policies of congressman Braley (and) they want a new direction for America."
Two weekend polls in Kentucky showed Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, extending his lead over an unexpectedly strong Democratic challenger.
And in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn has been neck and neck in her race for the Republican-held Senate seat, two new polls have rival David Perdue inching ahead.
Democrats currently hold a 10-seat advantage, 55-45, in the Senate. If Republicans take just a net six seats they flip the chamber.
The party of an incumbent president historically fares badly in elections in the middle of his second term, and this midterm is expected to be no different.
One Democratic casualty could be Senator Mark Udall of Colorado, where 1.3 million people have already voted early. Statistics compiled by Professor Michael McDonald's US Elections Project show 40.5 percent of early ballots have been filed by registered Republicans compared with 32.5 percent by Democrats.
A total of 17 million people across the nation have voted early.
But there are wildcards. Independent Greg Orman could oust Republican Senator Pat Roberts in Kansas, and he said he could caucus with Democrats or Republicans.
With trends not going their way, Democratic leaders pleaded with supporters.
"We're looking at a catastrophe if things go wrong," House minority leader Nancy Pelosi reportedly warned in a fundraising email.
Democrats including Vice President Joe Biden nonetheless put a brave face on the races.
"I don't agree with the oddsmakers. I predict we're going to keep the Senate," insisted Biden.
Yet he acknowledged the potential for a Republican takeover.
"Quite frankly, going into 2016 when Republicans (have) to make a decision whether they're in control or not in control, are they going to begin to allow things to happen, or are they going to be obstructionists?" Biden told CNN. "I think they will choose to get things done."
In the closing days, both parties have brought out top surrogates to present closing arguments.
For Republicans, it was former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
With Obama's unpopularity keeping him away from the campaign trail, it fell to more popular Democrats like former president Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, who is considering a presidential run in 2016, to rally the party faithful.
Source: Agence France Presse
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