Regional Fears as Burundi Crisis Shows No Sign of Ending
Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza's insistence on running for a third term has already sparked deadly protests at home and now threatens to destabilize an already volatile region.
Analysts warn that without an urgent solution, the current street protests in Burundi could escalate into a regional crisis that spreads far beyond the small central African country, including fears it might draw in neighboring Rwanda, and create far more refugees than the 50,000 who have already fled.
Beyond the demonstrations in Bujumbura, the bigger concern is that the current crisis could jeopardize the Arusha Agreement, which brought peace to Burundi after years of civil war.
The deal included an ethnic power-sharing formula that helped end fighting that raged from 1993 to 2006 between the mostly Tutsi army and predominately Hutu rebel groups.
"The return to violence would not only end the peace progressively restored since the Arusha agreement, it would also have destabilizing consequences in the region and mark a failure in peace building," the International Crisis Group said in a report issued before the protests began.
"The country's relapse into violence would be a pitiful outcome for the guarantors of the Arusha agreement and could fuel regional crisis."
- Rebels and ethnic conflict -
At least 19 people have been killed and scores wounded since late April when the ruling CNDD-FDD -- a Hutu-dominated party -- nominated Nkurunziza for re-election.
The United Nations has warned that 400,000 people could be affected in a worst-case scenario should upcoming elections turn violent.
Leaders of the five-nation East African Community -- made up of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda as well as Burundi -- are to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis on Wednesday in Tanzania.
Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila and South Africa's Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa are also due to attend.
Burundi's 13-year civil war between ethnic Tutsis and Hutus ended in 2006, but the region still struggles with the same tensions and the knock-on effects of each other's crises.
Eastern DR Congo has been ravaged by decades of conflict, with the lawless region allowing the growth of rebel groups that reflect regional ethnic and political government and opposition forces.
Tanzania, which has hosted vast numbers of refugees from multiple rounds of conflict, is also worried.
More importantly, neighboring Rwanda, where a Tutsi-led government has been in power since the 1994 genocide, in which 800,000 mainly Tutsis were slaughtered by extremist Hutu killers, has signaled its concern.
- Regional crisis summit -
"If your citizens tell you we don't want you to lead us, how do you say 'I am staying whether you want me or not'?" Rwandan President Paul Kagame said last week.
Kagame, whose repression of opposition at home infuriates key allies like the United States, is widely believed to be wanting to change the constitution to seek a third term -- but to do so by organizing a referendum that critics say is already a done deal.
Burundi has rejected Rwandan allegations that some of the violence is linked to Rwandan ethnic Hutu rebels of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) -- a group Kigali has previously sent troops into DR Congo to target.
The Imbonerakure, the militant youth wing of Nkurunziza's CNDD-FDD rebel group turned ruling party, is accused of possible links to the FDLR.
"While we respect Burundi's sovereignty in addressing internal matters, Rwanda considers the safety of innocent population as a regional and international responsibility," Rwanda's Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo said last week.
Mushikiwabo said Rwanda "takes seriously" the reports of FDLR involvement.
"Rwanda cannot allow an escalation of a crisis on its borders," said Christian Thibon, a Burundi expert at France's University of Pau.
Analysts say Burundi's crisis bolsters regional leaders' justification for strong rule -- especially in Kigali's eyes.
Nkurunziza's actions "justify the continuation of their own authoritarian management and their prominent role as guarantors of law and order in the region," said regional specialist Andre Guichaoua.
If violence escalates, then Rwanda "may be tempted to impose a settlement on the FDLR throughout the region," said a regional analyst, on condition of anonymity.
Source: Agence France Presse
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