Israeli Elections: Potential Scenarios after Votes Cast
Israelis vote in a closely fought general election on Tuesday in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking a fifth term.
The results could present a complicated set of possibilities for how the next government is formed. Here are potential scenarios:
- Likud wins most seats -
Netanyahu's right-wing Likud winning the most seats could simplify the post-election possibilities. In that case, he would almost surely be asked by President Reuven Rivlin to form a government and would likely be able to do so with the help of smaller right-wing parties allied to him after intensive negotiations.
- Blue and White wins most seats -
Ex-military chief Benny Gantz's centrist Blue and White alliance could win the most seats, but still end up the loser.
If it is ahead of Likud by only a small number of seats, Netanyahu may still be best placed to form a coalition with other right-wing parties who have pledged to support him and not Gantz.
On the other hand, if Blue and White surpasses the Likud by a significant number of seats, Rivlin may then ask Gantz to form a government. Gantz would likely attempt to do so with a combination of parties on the left and right.
- Unity government -
While Gantz publicly rules it out, there is the possibility that Likud and Blue and White negotiate to form a unity government.
That scenario could be in place if some of the smaller right-wing parties Netanyahu would rely on to form a coalition fail to receive the 3.25 percent of the vote required to enter parliament and Gantz is unable to form a government on his own.
- Minority government -
Some analysts do not rule out the possibility of a minority government led by either of the two main candidates, but believe it to be unlikely. Such an arrangement would leave the government too unstable, according to those analysts.
- Precedent -
In 2009, the party that won the most seats in Israel's election ended up the loser.
In that case, Kadima led by Tzipi Livni won 28 seats compared with Likud's 27. But Livni was unable to form a coalition and the task went to Netanyahu instead, who succeeded in doing so.
He has remained prime minister ever since.
Source: Agence France Presse
| Copyright © 2012 Naharnet.com. All Rights Reserved. | https://naharnet.com/stories/en/258821 |