Lebanon elections point to a shift, but more turmoil ahead
The final results of Sunday's parliamentary elections, expected on Tuesday, will show whether Hizbullah and its allies can keep an actionable majority in Parliament.
Counting was ongoing and official results were only available for 99 of the 128 seats up for grabs a little before midnight (2100 GMT), fuelling opposition fears of foul play in some of the closest races.
- 'Complaints' -
The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections said its members were threatened and attacked by several groups, mostly in areas controlled by Hizbullah and Amal. Several candidates lodged complaints claiming irregularities and forgery.
Scuffles and cases of voter intimidation were reported, although Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi insisted Monday when announcing partial results that their number was "very low".
Tension was high in some constituencies where opposition candidates who looked to be squeezing into parliament suspected traditional parties of attempting to cook the results.
- Polarized parliament -
The preliminary results point to a shift, but more turmoil lies ahead. They portend a sharply polarized parliament divided between pro and anti-Hizbullah lawmakers who will find it difficult to work together to form a new government and pass the laws needed to enact reforms and begin the country's financial recovery.
With two main blocs — Hizbullah and the Lebanese Forces — opposed to each other, analysts said the results could be more paralysis.
“Going forward, unless these two groups can reach a modus vivendi on governance, Lebanon will be stuck in a political deadlock with long-term disastrous economic consequences,” said Randa Slim, senior fellow with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad warned opponents Monday against becoming "shields for the Israelis", raising fears of unrest as the group's rivals appeared to make gains.
"We accept you as opponents in parliament, but we will not accept you as shields for the Israelis," Raad said in televised remarks.
- 'New start' -
New opposition candidates also made advances, pushing forward the agenda of a cross-sectarian protest movement that erupted in late 2019 against the ruling elite.
“Personally, I am not optimistic about these elections, and I do not think that the U.S. administration should bet on these elections,” said former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker last week.
"There is a broken system in Lebanon, and elections with such electoral laws will clearly not fix it,” he said in a webinar for the Washington Institute.
In comments that reverberated in Lebanon, he described candidates running against Hizbullah and its allies as “incredibly divided, brimming with narcissistic and individualistic leaders" more interested in personal gain than getting together and overthrowing a corrupt elite.”
However, independents and newcomers scooped up at least 16 seats. That was a major achievement considering they went into the vote fragmented and facing intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. Their showing sends a strong message to ruling class politicians who have held on to their seats despite an economic meltdown that has impoverished the country and triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war.
Analyst Ziad Majed said that the economic context could play in favor of reformists who will for the first time be pushing from within parliament, not just as outsiders.
"This will create political and popular pressure for reformists and forces of change to cooperate," he said.
The outcome of the vote could have an impact on a presidential election due later this year.
Source: Associated Press, Agence France Presse
| Copyright © 2012 Naharnet.com. All Rights Reserved. | https://naharnet.com/stories/en/289835 |