Hezbollah willing to bend, not break for a truce
More than a month into its war with Israel, Hezbollah says it is ready for a truce, but there are limits to what it can accept after suffering devastating attacks, analysts say.
The Iran-backed group said Wednesday it would accept a ceasefire, if offered and if the terms were "suitable," acknowledging it had been dealt "painful" blows by Israel.
Also Wednesday, Lebanon's premier Najib Mikati said he had received signals from U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein that a truce could be reached before the U.S. elections on November 5.
With much of its senior leadership killed and its strongholds pulverized, Hezbollah could use the recovery time that a truce would offer.
A ceasefire is a "priority" for Hezbollah so it can "reorganize its ranks," said Qassim Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to the group.
"It will agree to the deployment of the army (in south Lebanon) and to stay away from the borders, but nothing more than that," he told AFP, referring to Israeli demands for Hezbollah to retreat some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the frontier.
Hezbollah, which began trading cross-border fire with Israel last year in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas, has found itself on the back foot since all-out war erupted on September 23.
Israel has assassinated the group's most senior leaders, including its chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, tipped as his successor.
The killings created a month-long vacuum at the top, as targeted strikes on hideouts across the country suggested an intelligence breach.
On the ground, Israeli forces have advanced as far as the town of Khiam, some six kilometers (four miles) from the border.
Hezbollah says the Israelis have yet to fully control any frontier village.
- 'Withdraw fighters' -
In Lebanon's east, Hezbollah infrastructure, including underground tunnels and weapon supply lines from Syria, have come under attack, Israel's military says.
At least two out of six land crossings with Syria have been closed after Israeli strikes, and aircraft operated by Hezbollah-backer Iran are banned from landing in Lebanon's only airport, Beirut.
Hezbollah "has been considerably weakened... and it will be very difficult to rebuild it in the current context," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Already, there are signs that Hezbollah is willing to budge, after repeatedly declaring it would only stop attacks on Israel if there was a Gaza ceasefire.
Although it has yet to officially reverse that position, Mikati said Wednesday Hezbollah was no longer linking the two fronts, a reversal he said came "late."
Mikati also said Hezbollah ministers were on board with the implementation of a 2006 U.N. resolution as part of a ceasefire deal.
Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, states that only the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers should be deployed in southern Lebanon.
It also demands the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory.
"Hezbollah is moving to a point where it could accept the implementation of U.N. resolution 1701," said David Wood, senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
"Hezbollah might be willing to withdraw fighters and infrastructure" some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Lebanon's southern border to areas north of the Litani River.
- Military pressure -
According to Wood, "there is enormous amount of pressure on Hezbollah" from political rivals and its own support base, "to bring an end to this carnage."
"This explains why it is more open to ceasefire talks," he said.
At the same time, Hezbollah has continued rocket and drone strikes against Israel, including targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence.
This shows that while Hezbollah is open to a ceasefire, "it will not accept just any terms," Wood said.
Hezbollah "still feels like it has a seat at the table and could reach a negotiated settlement without total surrender."
Mounir Shehadeh, a former Lebanese government coordinator for the U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL, said Hezbollah is ready to implement Resolution 1701 provided that Israel does so.
But "Israel has no interest in implementing the resolution, and it has been violating it since it was signed in 2006," Shehadeh said.
Another stumbling block is that many Hezbollah cadres come from the very villages Israel wants the group to vacate.
Hezbollah fighters "are the sons of these southern towns," Shehadeh said.
"Someone who was born in these villages and grew up there, and his family is there and his interests are there, how can he be asked to leave his village and head to the north of the Litani?"
Source: Agence France Presse
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