Analysts: Syrian Regime Won Baba Amr Battle, Not the War
The Syrian regime may have won the battle of Baba Amr against lightly armed rebels, but spreading protests indicate this victory on the ground is unlikely to clear the country's political impasse, analysts said on Friday.
The small district in the central city of Homs had become a symbol of the almost year-long uprising against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
But after being besieged and bombarded for nearly four weeks, rebels staged what they called a tactical withdrawal from the battered district in the face of an all-out offensive by Assad's forces.
"The regime has only proven the obvious: a balance of power that leans heavily in its favor militarily," said Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group, arguing that "regime victories are only very temporary."
He said the problem is not confined to a military win at Baba Amr or elsewhere, but is related to the inability of the regime to solve the crisis that has pitted it against "hundreds of thousands, if not millions" of Syrians, Harling said.
Armed with very little, rebels and deserters defended Baba Amr during 26 days of bombardment, but as the feared Fourth Armored Division led by Assad's younger brother Maher moved in, they announced a withdrawal to spare the lives of civilians.
Well over 7,500 people have been killed in violence since protests against Assad broke out in mid-March last year, according to U.N. figures.
"It does give the regime momentum," said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center, speaking of its taking control over Baba Amr.
But "the rebellion has not been crushed" and "the opposition and the rebellion have lost too much to stop," he said.
"The regime can boast of a victory, but it is clear that it has not won the war," according to Paris-based Middle East expert Anges Levallois.
Damascus could not afford to allow the rebels to maintain a stronghold in Homs because of the strategic importance of the third largest city in Syria, she said, adding, however, that this "would not stop the opposition from fighting."
A security official in Damascus said that gaining control over Baba Amr was important "because it was the final destination of arms entering Syria, before being distributed."
Although the Assad regime may have scored, the game is far from over, analysts agree.
"Politically speaking the regime has not advanced. It is mobilizing its social base while crushing the rest of society, and this so far has not produced any durable results," said Harling.
Assad's show of force in Baba Amr would seem to indicate his preference to resorting to the military option to fight the opposition, ignoring Arab and international calls to end his regime's deadly crackdown on dissent.
"The more the regime thinks it can win, the less likely it will engage in diplomacy," Hamid said.
"Assad still believes in a military solution ... As long he thinks he can win and ... wipe out the opposition," he said.
Harling argued: "The regime at the moment is very comfortable. It will not be forced to change its approach unless there is change in the military balance or in the case of a political initiative in favor of a negotiated transition including the support of Russia," Syria's staunch ally.
Increasingly aware of the deadlock, the Syrian National Council, the exile umbrella alliance of opposition groups, announced this week it was establishing a military bureau that would supervise the delivery of arms to the rebels.
The SNC had initially opposed the militarization of the uprising.
The coalition appears to "understand that the wind is changing, that militarization is a better option and that sources are available, and wants to be a part of this and create its own structure," Harling said.
This means that Syria is stepping into a new and more critical phase of struggle.
"There is a risk of the country entering an extremely dangerous stage ... militarization means entering a civil war that could last for months and months," Levallois said.
According to Hamid, "the most likely outcome is a long bloody stalemate."
Source: Agence France Presse
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