'Abducting ministers and attacking army': Has Hezbollah plotted armed takeover?
Hezbollah held a “security meeting” in the southern suburbs of Beirut on the night of October 21, hours prior to a cabinet session that was held the next day, mapping out a scenario for action should the government approve referring the Dahr al-Baidar explosives case to the Judicial Council, the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on Tuesday.
Quoting unnamed sources, the daily said Hezbollah had concluded that the state had decided to proceed with a judicial path that could begin by summoning several of the party's MPs and security officials for interrogation. Hezbollah speculated that “these measures would later expand to include the party's Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, potentially leading to his arrest. Viewing this as its military and political demise, Hezbollah decided to flip the table, topple the government and impose a military fait accompli on the ground,” the report claimed.
“The party drafted a plan to deploy its armed forces from Sidon to Beirut, across the eastern and western Bekaa, and into Metn and Keserwan. The military mission was explicit: kidnapping the ministers who would vote to refer the crime to the Judicial Council from their homes or residences,” Nidaa al-Watan said. “The plan included clear orders to target the Lebanese Army and security forces without hesitation should they attempt to intercept Hezbollah elements,” it added.
The same sources explained that “Hezbollah found itself with only two options: accept its inevitable demise via the government's decision, which would humiliate it before its support base and the families of its martyrs; or attempt to turn the tables, initiate an internal war against authorities, and try to fracture the Lebanese Army. The latter option would prolong the party's survival and push the battle into a new phase.”
According to the report, Hezbollah calculated that the exceptionally high cost of an internal war was still far lower than the cost of facing the Judicial Council.
“The party instructed its internal security officials to prepare their personnel and pulled large numbers of fighters from the Bekaa and the South into the southern suburbs of Beirut to ready the mission. Hezbollah directly relayed its intentions and decision to Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and relevant officials without relying on the "Big Brother" (Speaker Nabih Berri), who had independently contacted Prime Minister Salam to advise against disrupting civil peace,” the report added.
According to Nidaa Al-Watan, Salam contacted a senior official from a country friendly to Lebanon, who “advised him against allowing Lebanon to erupt internally” and “noted that the international community and the Arab Gulf are currently preoccupied with the Iranian crisis and would not prioritize Lebanon.”
Consequently, Salam, in coordination with President Joseph Aoun, decided to refer the case to the Military Court instead, the report added. They however maintained their insistence on pursuing the investigation to uncover who decided to defy the government and continue smuggling arms, regardless of whether the weapons shipment was intended for domestic or foreign use.
Following these developments, Salam “reached out to the political parties represented in the cabinet, requesting their understanding of the decision not to resort to the Judicial Council. However, the Lebanese Forces party refused to comply and boycotted the government,” Nidaa al-Watan said.
Sources from the Lebanese Forces meanwhile argued in remarks to the daily that “the state's capitulation to Hezbollah's threats will only embolden the party to commit further violations and threaten the state again.” They asserted that “striking with an iron fist and actively confronting Hezbollah is the only path to restoring the state's authority and the proper functioning of its institutions.”
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