Experts: New Hopes for Myanmar Peace Talks
A bold move by Myanmar's president to take charge of peace talks with ethnic rebels has revived hope of an end to a war in the far north perpetuated by mutual distrust and vested interests, experts say.
Conflict between Myanmar's army and ethnic rebels in Kachin state has raged for a year, displacing around 50,000 civilians and casting a shadow over hard-won government ceasefires in other parts of the country.
The reformist regime has now overhauled its negotiating team, putting the president at the helm of the process and removing some elements of the previous delegation seen by Kachin rebels as linked to army hardliners.
The involvement of President Thein Sein, who has won plaudits for a series of reform launched since he took power last year, is a "strong indication that a deal with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) can be reached", said Nicholas Farrelly, research fellow at the Australian National University.
"This is overdue but suggests a realization that hesitant steps will not bring peace to war-torn northern Burma. It will take bold leadership and reservoirs of goodwill," he added, using the country's former name.
Myanmar has signed tentative ceasefire deals with a number of rebel groups in recent months as it seeks to draw a line under civil conflicts that have racked parts of the country since independence in 1948.
But fighting has continued in Kachin state since a 17-year ceasefire broke down last June, as previous government negotiator Aung Thaung failed to win the KIA's trust.
An MP with the ruling army-backed party, he was seen by the rebels as actively trying to hamper talks to buy time as the army pushed for territory, and has now been removed from negotiations.
Win Min, an expert with the Thailand-based Vahu Development Institute, said the new line-up was likely to be welcomed because it boosts the political and military clout of the negotiators -- adding the chief of the army for the first time as well as ethnic Shan vice president Sai Mauk Kham.
He said another welcome inclusion was Railway Minister Aung Min, seen as a pivotal figure in other ceasefire deals, including with rebels from eastern Karen state, the scene of the country's longest-running insurgency.
The Kachin for their part have held out for a political deal to avoid falling "into the same vicious circle of making ceasefire, then making business-oriented regional development and finally falling into fighting again", Win Min said.
A KIA official, who asked not to be named, told AFP that Thein Sein's involvement was welcome.
But he said the success of the talks "will depend on their policy, their willingness to talk to us. It doesn't depend on people".
Negotiators will be faced with the immediate task of securing a temporary halt to fighting, which appears to have gained momentum in recent weeks, despite international calls for a ceasefire.
The KIA has raised fears of an impending assault on their northern stronghold of Laiza near the Chinese border.
State media have also increased the heat with claims of rebel attacks, some wounding civilians -- allegations the KIA denies.
Experts said that both sides are likely to vie for strategic positions before they return to the negotiating table.
Myanmar's military, which traditionally used the ethnic conflicts as a justification for its near half century dictatorship, may also be reluctant to see an end to the fighting.
"Without an internal enemy their budgets and combat strength are hard to justify," said Farrelly.
Independent Myanmar analyst Richard Horsey said the Kachin conflict has been particularly hard to calm because on-going fighting made the military reluctant to back down while suffering casualties.
But he said the KIA were uncomfortable being the only major group not to strike a deal, and were likely to be open to negotiations that gave them the same standing as other ethnic minority rebels.
"There was the wrong negotiating team. It wasn't ready to offer the same terms to the Kachin as had offered to the Karen for example," said Horsey, citing international monitors and codes of conduct for troops as examples.
But peace may imperil the standing of rebel commanders who enjoy much greater power in a conflict situation, he added, while others benefit personally from controlling land linked to lucrative logging and mining deals with Chinese firms.
The KIA may also be reluctant to lay down its arms at a time when it is enjoying a surge of popular support.
"Kachin society is really animated, really angry and people feel emboldened and for the first time in years the KIA have support. They are suddenly feeling like they are the heroes," Horsey said.
Source: Agence France Presse
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