World Powers, Iran Meet in Baghdad Promise a New Dawn in Relations
World powers and Iran hope to lay the groundwork for an end to the long-running crisis over Tehran's nuclear program in talks in Baghdad on Wednesday, but the challenges are immense.
The meeting with the P5+1 -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- comes at a time of unprecedented tensions more than three years since Barack Obama became U.S. president promising a new dawn in relations.
Israel, seeing its very existence under threat if Iran does get the bomb, has made it clear that its patience with the ability of diplomacy and sanctions alone to help the country sleep easy is running very thin.
Since Obama's election, Iran has dramatically widened the scope of its nuclear program, including by enriching uranium to 20 percent, taking it significantly closer to weapons-grade of 90 percent.
In return, the U.N. Security Council has tightened the screw on Iran's shrinking, high-inflation economy with more sanctions. Additional EU and U.S. restrictions on its oil sector due to hit from July are already being felt.
Obama, seeking re-election in November against a Republican challenger accusing him of dawdling over Iran but also wary of Israeli air strikes pushing up gasoline prices for U.S. voters even more, also wants progress.
As a result of these factors, both sides decided to give talks another go, coming together for a breaking-the-ice session in Istanbul in mid-April, for the first Iran/P5+1 meeting in 15 months, and agreeing to come to Baghdad.
Both sides hailed a changed atmosphere, with one P5+1 envoy saying there was a "difference in tone, in mood," and Iran's negotiator Saeed Jalili welcoming a "desire of the other side for dialogue and cooperation."
In Turkey though, the bar was set low. In Iraq the parties will have to tackle some of the thorny issues that for the past decade have divided Iran and much of the international community, and also the P5+1 powers themselves.
The P5+1 will want Iran to take a series of steps that convince it once and for all that the real aim of Tehran's nuclear activities is not producing the bomb, but power generation and producing medical isotopes -- as Iran insists.
One key way to do this would be for Iran to agree to at least suspend 20-percent enrichment, while another measure that could build confidence would be Iran shipping its stockpiles of enriched uranium abroad.
What might also help is Iran implementing the additional protocol (AP) of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which allows for more intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
"Only the full implementation of the AP could restore confidence," said Bruno Tertrais, senior research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.
The IAEA also wants Iran to address allegations made in its November report that until 2003, and possibly since, Tehran had a "structured program" of "activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."
IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said on Monday he had "intensive" talks in Tehran, state TV reported, but no progress was made on visiting the Parchin military site mentioned in the report, and diplomats told Agence France Presse there was no breakthrough.
But in Baghdad, Iran will likely be disappointed if it expects to see sanctions relief in return for any of these moves, with the most it can hope for being a pledge -- with strings attached -- not to impose any more.
"The problem developing is that Iran is talking about the lifting of sanctions as if that was a real possibility," Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank in London told AFP.
The New York Times cited U.S. officials as saying that the P5+1 could offer a package of inducements easing restrictions on items such as aircraft parts or on technical assistance for the energy industry.
In any case, it is far from certain that any firm promises will be made from either side in Baghdad, with one diplomat playing down expectations by saying that even if the talks go well, the results might not be "tangible."
Instead, the outcome would be agreeing to hold more regular talks at a working level to hash out the technical details of confidence-building measures, a process needing two vital and elusive elements: patience and trust.
Source: Agence France Presse
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