Analysts: Turkey Has No War Plans for Syria Despite Rhetoric
Turkey is not going to war with neighboring Syria over the shooting down of a Turkish warplane, its prime minister said Wednesday but analysts expect a higher risk of clashes on the border.
Days after the Phantom F-4 jet was brought down by Syrian defenses, leaving its two crew missing, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has no hostile intent towards any country.
"As Turkey, the Turkish nation, we have no intention of attacking" Syria, he said during a military ceremony in Ankara.
His declaration came a day after he branded Syria "a clear and imminent threat" and promised a harsher military response to any border violation.
Wednesday's newspapers headlined Ankara's hardening attitude, with the Milliyet daily saying, "Syria is now a de facto enemy."
Analysts dismissed the prospects of a war but warned of escalating tensions on Turkey's 910-kilometre (560-mile) southern border with Syria.
"You can categorize a country as an enemy but this doesn't mean that you are in a hot conflict with that country," said political analyst Professor Sedat Laciner of the Ankara-based think tank USAK.
"Turkey has no intention of translating this tension into a war but it is apparent that the Turkish-Syrian border has turned into a frontier that may see stray attacks in the future," he stressed.
In a much-awaited speech in in parliament Tuesday, Erdogan announced that that the rules of engagement of the Turkish armed forces had changed after what he said was a "hostile act" by Syria testing Turkey's military capability.
Any action by Syria posing a risk on the border will be "considered a threat and treated as a military target," he said.
"Tension is going to rise at the border," said Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group.
"But I don't think Turkey wants to send troops into Syria. The only option for Turkey is to be part of an international initiative," he noted.
Meeting in Brussels Tuesday at Turkey's request, NATO rallied behind Ankara, condemned Damascus for shooting down the Phantom, but made no mention of possible intervention.
Erdogan said Turkey would take the necessary steps in line with its rights under international law, remarks interpreted by observers as a threat of unilateral action independent of any decisions to be taken by NATO or the United Nations.
"It's normal for Erdogan to deliver such a strong speech after such an incident," said Didier Billion, Turkey specialist at the Paris-based International and Strategic Relations Institute (IRIS).
The analyst said there was no threat of a war between Ankara and Damascus but "risks of clashes at the border," linked possibly to the presence of Syrian opposition rebels in southern Turkey.
"There are also risks of deliberate acts of provocation but such clashes would have a limited impact," he predicted.
Turkish media reported that Turkey would put Syria under greater scrutiny and watch its every military movement. Newspapers also said the government had sent tanks to the border and installed additional radar but this was not confirmed by officials.
"Turkey is frustrated and had to show that it had taken some measures after its plane was downed by Syria," said political scientist Professor Ilter Turan of Istanbul's Bilgi University.
Asked if Erdogan's party members were backing a war with Syria, Turan said: "Turkey's plane was shot down in a hostile act," but added that foreign policy cannot be conducted according to the expectations of the party grassroots.
Erdogan broke with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, a former friend and ally, calling him "a bloody dictator," after unrest that erupted mid-March last year met a bloody response from Damascus, sending tens of thousands of refugees into Turkey.
Laciner said Turkey had reached a stage in its relations with Syria when "every option is on the table."
"Turkey has no intention of going into war with Syria but is facing a state with an upset balance and arms in its possession. Turkey has the right to self-defense."
Source: Agence France Presse
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