Kremlin Keeps Poker Face over Tight U.S. Race
Vladimir Putin's Kremlin has carefully avoided taking sides in the U.S. presidential race with a victory by either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney offering potential strategic pluses for the Russian strongman.
Obama spearheaded the "reset" to improve ties which hit a Cold War-style freeze when he took on the presidency and his exit from the White House would dampen hopes of greater military, diplomatic and economic cooperation.
Yet some analysts argue that a victory by his challenger Romney -- who has made a series of anti-Kremlin statements in the campaign -- could help Putin shore up his position amid growing discontent at home.
Putin is never more comfortable than when declaiming anti-Western rhetoric and frequent duels with a future president Romney would make this seem more convincing in Russia by creating an external enemy.
"Romney is good in the sense that if he wins, Russia will not have any problems with U.S. relations -- they will simply be frozen," said Fyodor Lukyanov, who edits the magazine Russia in Global Affairs.
While Obama's foreign policy pleases moderates seeking to engage with the West, Putin's increasing isolationism and lack of personal rapport with Obama make Moscow relatively indifferent to his re-election, analysts said.
"Right now, Russia's foreign policy is much more isolationist than before," said Alexander Konovalov of the Moscow-based Institute of Strategic Assessments.
"There is a desire to use the aspect of Western threat to control domestic politics."
In the final presidential election debate, Romney promised to take off the "rose-colored glasses" and show the Kremlin "more backbone" if he is elected.
Obama had faced a blast of accusations for being 'soft on Russia' after he was overheard promising then-president Dmitry Medvedev more flexibility on missile defense in the now infamous hot-mic exchange in April.
Medvedev, who held the presidency while Putin served as premier from 2008-2012, brought a new warmth to ties that saw smiling visits to the United States marked by casual lunches at burger bars.
However all this came to a sudden end when Putin returned to the Kremlin for a third term in May. He has yet to make the first U.S. visit of his new mandate.
Putin met Obama for the first time of his new term this summer and both leaders looked tense, making no casual remarks after their talks in Mexico on the sidelines of the G20.
The Russian president has dismissed questions over his preferred U.S. counterpart, but admits there are "pluses and minuses" to the presidency of Romney, who once called Russia Washington's number one geopolitical foe.
"That Mr. Romney considers us enemy number one is a minus. But that he says this directly and honestly is a plus," Putin said last month.
Putin's presidential campaign rhetoric this winter dipped handsomely into anti-Americanism, targeting the freshly-appointed U.S. envoy to Moscow Michael McFaul who is an expert on democratic change.
A Romney victory would end the need to reconcile America-bashing with the "reset" cordiality and more hawkish members of the Russian establishment see him as more convenient, analyst Alexei Makarkin said.
Romney "would increase anti-American attitudes in Russia," he said, which "allows the opportunity to tighten the screws within the country, to continue pushing out international organizations."
"Putin is careful" and does not express preference for either candidate because "for him it is not a priority," Makarkin said. "The main thing for him is domestic politics."
Putin has accused the U.S. State Department of financing protests against him, and limited the work of Russian non-governmental organizations who receive funding from the West.
Last month Putin suddenly ordered an end to the work of USAID in Russia, and a recently-passed law ordered NGOs with foreign funding, much of it from American foundations, to carry an embarrassing "foreign agent" label.
Outstanding points of diplomatic disagreement between Moscow and Washington include starkly different standpoints on the Syria crisis which have paralyzed decision-making at the Security Council, as well as missile defense.
Another persistent source of concern for Moscow is the so-called Magnitsky list, a proposed U.S. measure penalizing Russian officials implicated in the death in jail of the whistleblowing lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.
It has been broadly supported in Congress but kept in check by Obama's administration.
Source: Agence France Presse
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