Russia Digs in Heels over Syria despite Diplomatic Push
Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity aiming to end a war that has claimed more than 80,000 lives, Russia still shows no signs of abandoning its support for the regime of Bashar Assad.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, British Prime Minister David Cameron and now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have all found time to meet President Vladimir Putin in the last few days in a new effort to find an international consensus.
Russia and the United States agreed to work to convene an international peace conference on Syria, a move U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi described as "the first hopeful news" from Syria in a long time.
But in a sign of its refusal to line up with the West against Assad's regime, Moscow has defied international calls to pledge to halt deliveries of advanced S-300 missile batteries to Syria.
Meanwhile it is far from certain that the conference, which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said should ideally take place by the end of the month, can take place swiftly.
"If they don't agree on the conference, its format and the time Assad should go, the casualties will carry on growing in huge numbers," said Vladimir Akhmedov, a Middle East expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"They would have to have Assad and his opponents at the negotiating table and they so far do not want to talk to him. There are lots of snags," added Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy head of the Institute of USA and Canada.
Further complicating matters is the fact that the proposed conference would aim to build on an agreement reached by world powers in Geneva last June, which was never implemented, analysts said.
The agreement called for a cessation of violence and the establishment of a transitional government without ever spelling out Assad's fate.
"It will be based on an idea that has failed. I doubt that the second conference will be more successful than the previous one," said Akhmedov.
Russia and the West have been deeply divided over the war in Syria since its beginning in 2011.
Even though Moscow has stressed it does not support Assad personally, it maintains he has to be part of any negotiations over future of the country. In contrast, the West wants Assad out.
But recent claims of the use of chemical weapons by both sides, Israeli airstrikes on Syria and the multiplying casualty toll have spurred the uneasy partners into action.
In a bid to make another joint push for peace, Putin met Kerry for two and a half hours at the Kremlin on Tuesday and hosted Cameron for rare talks at his Black Sea vacation residence on Friday.
The next high-profile guest to call on Putin in Sochi is Netanyahu who will visit him Tuesday.
Netanyahu is widely expected to discuss supplies of weapons to Syria such as S-300 surface-to-air-missiles, amid concerns such a delivery would embolden the Damascus regime.
The sophisticated systems can defend against multiple aircraft and missiles and will complicate any foreign intervention.
While military analysts say it remains unclear whether the Kremlin will make good on its promise to deliver the arms, some suggest it is using the supplies as a bargaining chip in its talks with the West.
Opposition weekly The New Times, citing a source in London, said Monday the Russians had insisted in talks with Kerry that Moscow would fulfill its arms contracts with Syria.
The Kremlin will only revisit its decision if the West drops any plans it may have to "dismember Syria" by creating a buffer zone, the magazine said.
The Kommersant daily said Putin had told Cameron during talks that the S-300 systems would be delivered to Syria "for sure," adding the contract in question was signed in 2010.
Britain and France have been leading a push to have the European Union's embargo on supplying arms to Syria lifted, a move that could tip the balance of power in favor of rebels.
"Moscow is seeing that the West is getting fed up with the crisis and that it is determined to put an end to the Syrian mess," said Kremenyuk.
Source: Agence France Presse
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