النقد الدولي يخفض توقعات نمو الإقتصاد اللبناني إلى 1,5%

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أعلن صندوق النقد الدولي الاربعاء انه خفض توقعاته للنمو الاقتصادي في لبنان خلال عام 2011 الى نسبة 1,5 بالمئة بعد عدة سنوات من النمو القوي وذلك بسبب الوضع السياسي غير المستقر والاضطرابات في سوريا المجاورة.

ويعد هذا الخفض الذي اعلنه البنك في تقريره للاقتصاد الاقليمي الاربعاء في دبي، الثاني هذا العام بعد ان خفض الصندوق توقعات النمو الى 2,5% هذا الربيع.

وقال مسعود أحمد مدير صندوق النقد الدولي لمنطقة الشرق الاوسط ووسط اسيا لفرانس برس "هذه هي افضل توقعاتها".

واضاف ان تاخر تشكيل الحكومة خمسة اشهر حتى شهر حزيران/يونيو اضافة الى الاضطرابات في سوريا "قادت الى تباطؤ النشاط الاقتصادي بشكل كبير في لبنان مما دفعنا الى مراجعة تقديراتنا".

وأشار الى أن هذين العاملين كان لهما "انعكاسات على الثقة" في الاقتصاد الذي لم تقل نسبة نموه عن 7,5% في الفترة من عام 2007 الى 2010، بحسب ارقام الصندوق.

ولفت مدير الصندوق الى أن التباطؤ يلاحظ في قطاع العقارات الذي شهد نموا متسارعا خلال العامين الماضيين، وكذلك في الاقتصاد ككل.

واضاف "انه تباطؤ معمم اكثر مما رأينا في السابق، مشيرا الى ان "الوضع المالي تدهور قليلا".

وجاء في تقرير الصندوق ان العجز المالي للحكومة سيرتفع الى 7,8% من اجمالي الناتج المحلي في عام 2011 مقارنة مع 7,3 بالمئة في عام 2010.

كما أعرب الصندوق عن تفاؤله بشان توقعات العام المقبل حيث توقع تسارع وتيرة الاقتصاد بنسبة 3,5%.

وأضاف انه "في النصف الثاني من العام، تم تشكيل حكومة. وهناك قدر اكبر من الاستقرار نتيجة ذلك" مضيفا ان "الافتراض هو انه خلال العام المقبل، ستواصل الامور في المنطقة استقرارها".

وفي وقت سابق من هذا الشهر قام البنك الدولي بخفض توقعاته للنمو الاقتصاد في لبنان من سبعة في المئة المتوقعة في كانون الثاني/يناير الى اربعة بالمئة، وتوقع ان يصل العجز المالي الى 5,5% من اجمالي الناتج المحلي.

التعليقات 7
Default-user-icon The Truth (ضيف) 22:24 ,2011 تشرين الأول 26

So under the March 14 governments the country's economy was growing at a much faster pace and under March 8 its growth is diminishing continually.

Default-user-icon zizo (ضيف) 23:43 ,2011 تشرين الأول 26

typically, any economic growth below 2% means that unemployment rate will increase. Only God knows what the unemployment rate in Lebanon or inflation are. Most statistics are not accurate.

The main problem in Lebanon is that the large of the informal sector is too big due to unfair tax codes and lack of government control. Something similar takes place in Greece. While Greece has the EU backing it, we have nobody.

Default-user-icon TheEconomist (ضيف) 00:12 ,2011 تشرين الأول 27

@aounophobia

I'm Lebanese living in Canada, studying economics and political science at a prestigious university, and I have been able to study Lebanese politics and economy for a while. If anything, public debt is attributed to Rafiq el-Hariri's massive debt that he created in order to rebuild downtown Lebanon (by inserting his companies and profiteering from the debt). The government that you accuse of slowing down the economy created a bill that will generate electricity 24/7. Even if there are some flaws (no bill is perfect) it is an important step in the right direction for the Lebanese economy. Last time I checked, it was Saad el-Hariri trying to keep the Lebanese economy highly privatized in order to gain profits at the expense of the Lebanese people. You should take some time to read more articles and books, something most Lebanese people in Lebanon fail to do and just speak with little understanding of the basics of economics or politics.

Default-user-icon Prodi (ضيف) 01:24 ,2011 تشرين الأول 27

hey aounophobia, let me enlighten you cose i think the most economics u got in ur lifeis the bill at the restaurant and the who pays debate. 1.5 percent growth is INCREDIBLY GOOD NEWS, all u have to do is compare to europe's and the us's figures, and then compare it to the middle east as a whole and country by countre, and see the difference...most of em have a 0 percent growth forecast. Plus, ur harriri freind decided that lebanon doesnt need industries, nor farmers, nor anythg that's linked to the real economy, under the pretext that its not the financial capitalism that the states and the imf proclaim. so my freind, if ur waiting for any occasion to jump over aoun's actions, know one thing, if there were 30 bassil's and Nahas in the gov, we would be in a far better situatio. oh btw, to the bullshiters that say that Nahas is a marxist, just liste to Fillon's speech in front of parliament, about public sector reform, and dare call him a marxist intellectually bankrupt people.

Thumb geha 09:09 ,2011 تشرين الأول 27

@theeconomist
with respect to your knowledge, kindly remember that all what is currently being approved by this cabinet, are laws prepared previously during the past cabinets.
why they are passing now is simple: they were blocked previously by the current majority. so please do not give them a misplaced credit.
although I do not care for Hariri policies and doings, I just wanted to set things straight in this respect.
this government has not come up yet with any new law project except the salary increase, which is a total flop. :)

Thumb justice 10:05 ,2011 تشرين الأول 27

@so called economist:

_ First advice I give you boy is to stay studying in school coz u need a lot more than just being a student at " a prestigious university" to call yourself the economist.

Harriri or any other Prime minister had to rebuild the country after 20 years of civil war..... a war created and fueled by Lebanese warlords including your beloved ailing general. If you know anything about economy, you will surely know that any country has to borrow in order to finance such huge task. Add to this the various unnecessary wars started by your ally Hizb of thugs which added further financial burden on the treasury.

My dear student: you may have some promising future, but stay away from prejudice and hatred coz it will not help you. You and your likes always blame Harriri forgeting that in a country like Lebanon the Prime Minister does not rule by himself. Were there not a Christian President, A shiite Speaker, and a Parliament representing the various elements of society?

Default-user-icon Marcos (ضيف) 16:29 ,2011 كانون الأول 26

@ Justice

I totally agree with you, since hariri did not hold any arm during the Lebanese civil war.

In fact he did not have to, since he was selling armor to the participating warlords at the time.

Cheers.