Islamists Hoping for Comeback in Jordan Election

Jordanians vote in parliamentary elections Tuesday that could see opposition Islamists re-emerge as a major parliamentary force in the kingdom, a key Western ally in the fight against jihadists.

The vote comes as Jordan wrestles with stubbornly high unemployment, fears of a spillover from wars in Syria and Iraq and the burden of hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees.

Experts expect the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, to win around 20 seats in the 130-seat parliament, making it the biggest opposition force.

The IAF boycotted elections in 2010 and 2013 in protest at the electoral system and allegations of fraud.

Jordan's electoral system gives disproportionate clout to rural districts, which are less populated than the cities but tend to return tribal candidates loyal to the monarchy.

The IAF will also face competition from Islamists seen as aligned with the palace, however.

These include the breakaway Muslim Brotherhood Association, which the government authorized last year to compete in polls.

"How well Islamists aligned with the monarchy fare compared to the IAF coalition may be the more important outcome of this election," said Kirk Sowell of Utica Risk Services, a consultancy.

"Given parliament's limited powers and the distorting impact of seat allocation, the primary significance of this election could be as a referendum on the state's efforts to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood.

"If its 'reform' coalition easily defeats regime-aligned Islamists, it could be a black eye for the establishment," he added.

- 'Insufficient' reforms -

Despite the challenges facing Jordan, the election has failed to inspire the public. 

The Phenix Center, a local pollster, reported that 42 percent of Jordanians planned not to vote while 19 percent were undecided. Nearly a third said they would vote for a family or tribe member.

Such indifference reflects the fact the parliament has limited powers to affect government policy.

King Abdullah II, who is head of the armed forces, can appoint and sack military and intelligence chiefs, senior judges and members of parliament's upper house without government approval.

But while parliament cannot overrule royal decisions, MPs do influence public debate, said Sowell.

"MPs play a broad role in shaping the political environment because they are so often quoted in print and television media," he told AFP.

The IAF has called for the parliament to be given more powers than it has under the current constitution, which gives the king broad authority including naming the prime minister.

U.S. intelligence firm Stratfor said the government hoped limited electoral reforms from March this year would enhance its own legitimacy and curb political unrest.

"The establishment has no intention of allowing Islamists to sweep the polls. But instead of suppressing them, the new system aims to dilute their power," it said in a report.

- Economic challenges -

A key Western ally long praised for its relative stability, Jordan is a member of the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State group. 

It has carried out air strikes targeting the jihadists and hosts coalition troops on its territory.

That has raised fears of IS attacks in the kingdom, especially after the group killed Jordanian fighter pilot Maaz al-Kassasbeh, who was captured in Syria in December 2014 and later burned alive.

In June, Amman declared the desert border regions with Syria and Iraq "military zones" after a suicide bomber killed six Jordanian soldiers near the Syrian frontier.

A desert country with few natural resources, Jordan has struggled with the spillover from the Syria war.

It says it is hosting nearly 1.4 million refugees, of whom 655,000 are registered with the United Nations.

Jordan's economy faces "considerable challenges", the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

"Economic growth remains below potential, unemployment is high, particularly for youth and women, (and) the refugee crisis is weighing on the economy and public finances," a report said.