France's Lebanon conference hampered by empty seats

France is focusing on raising hundreds of millions of dollars in aid at a conference for war-ravaged Lebanon on Thursday, but any prospect of a wider diplomatic breakthrough has been stymied by the absence of key players.

The French government nevertheless hopes that the gathering can keep diplomacy alive around the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has so far claimed more than 1,500 Lebanese lives and displaced 700,000 people.

Israel launched a ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in late September after a year exchanging fire over the border.

Paris is also seeking an increase in humanitarian aid for a country to which it has historic ties and which has a large diaspora in France.

Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told broadcaster RTL on Wednesday that around 70 countries and 15 international organizations would be there, vowing that France "will not let Lebanon down."

"Everyone we invited said yes," he added, a list which did not include Iran or Israel.

It was not clear Wednesday what level of officials would attend the conference from each participating country, although Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati will be present.

French President Emmanuel Macron will open the conference but U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is not expected in Paris.

"The president is doing his job by organizing a summit to show that he's not abandoning the people of Lebanon, but I don't expect much from it," said Agnes Levallois of France's Iremmo Middle East research institute.

- Ceasefire and aid -

Nevertheless, the conference "is at least happening," said Hasni Abidi of the Geneva-based Cermam center on the Arab world.

"Since the groundbreaking initiative from the French and the Americans, it's the only diplomatic movement underway," he added.

France and the U.S. pushed at last month's U.N. General Assembly for a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon.

On Thursday, "the objective is first of all to restate the need for a ceasefire, a diplomatic resolution and an end to hostilities," Barrot said.

France wants to "mobilize humanitarian aid from as many countries as possible," he added.

Macron's office said Wednesday that the conference would aim to fill the coffers of a $400-million U.N. appeal for aid to Lebanese displaced by the fighting.

"We've been working to secure the maximum level of contributions" ahead of the summit, the presidency added.

In Lebanon, "the needs are so vast that even if the aid totaled hundreds of millions of dollars, you could cynically see it as a sort of palliative care," said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut's Saint-Joseph University.

"The conference is better than nothing, but I'd have liked to see a political roadmap and more intense pressure on Israel," he said.

- Rebuild the army -

On the diplomatic front, France wants to re-apply U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which sealed the end of the last Hezbollah-Israel war in 2006.

The document stipulates that the only armed forces on Lebanon's southern frontier with Israel should be U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese army.

Strengthening the country's official armed forces would allow them to properly enforce the rules, which in practice were often violated before the Israel-Hamas war.

And in turn, fully reinstating 1701 would "allow us to guarantee Lebanese sovereignty and unity on one hand and on the other to give security guarantees to Israel", Barrot said.

He said it would allow tens of thousands who have left their homes in northern Israel in the past year to return.

Barrot accused Iran of trying to destabilize the region, suggesting it "doubtless" encouraged Hezbollah to bombard Israel after Hamas' October 7 attack.