Russia Says Regime Losing Control as Syria Opposition Leader Announces no Need for Foreign Intervention
إقرأ هذا الخبر بالعربية
A top Russian diplomat said on Thursday that the regime of President Bashar Assad is losing "more and more" control of Syria after 21 months of conflict and an opposition victory cannot be ruled out.
The comments by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov appear to be the first time a senior Russian official has explicitly acknowledged that the opposition could defeat Assad and take power in Syria.
In unusually outspoken remarks for a Russian diplomat, Bogdanov also said Russia was drawing up contingency plans for evacuating nationals from Syria. He warned the conflict could still claim tens of thousands more lives.
"As for preparing for victory by the opposition, this, of course, cannot be excluded," Bogdanov was quoted as saying by the ITAR-TASS and Interfax news agencies.
"You need to look the facts in the eyes -- the government regime is losing more and more control over a large part of the country's territory," he said.
Russia has so far refused to turn against Assad's regime despite the conflict, which according to rights groups has killed 42,000 people since March last year.
Throughout the conflict, Moscow has infuriated the West and anti-Assad Arab states by refusing to cut military and other ties with Damascus. Those ties were established with the president's father and predecessor Hafez Assad in the Soviet era.
Bogdanov warned that if even the opposition were to win, the conflict still risked lasting many more months at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.
"They (the opposition) say that they are controlling 60 percent of Syria's territory but we say to them that if they continue there is still 40 percent left," he said.
"If they have taken 60 percent in two years of civil war then they are going to need another one-and-a-half years (to win).
"And if until now 40,000 people have died and the battles are going to get even tougher, then tens -- maybe hundreds of thousands -- more lives will be lost."
He asked: "If this cost of overthrowing the president suits them (the rebels) then what are we to do?"
"We, of course, think this is completely unacceptable."
The RIA Novosti news agency also quoted Bogdanov as saying that the recent recognition of the opposition Syrian National Coalition by the United States -- following similar moves by other states -- had emboldened the opposition.
"They (the rebels) are saying that victory is not far away, 'let's take Aleppo, let's take Damascus'," he said.
"The recognition of the opposition, the training with rebel fighters and the weapons from abroad are now only inspiring the opposition."
Bogdanov said that despite the changing situation on the ground, Moscow would still insist on the fulfillment of an agreement between world powers in Geneva earlier this year to solve the Syria crisis through talks involving all parties.
He said the National Coalition's program had raised "many questions" in Moscow and the group's "refusal to talk to Assad and (aim) to oust the regime" went against the Geneva accord.
In another sign of Moscow's growing recognition of the seriousness of the situation, Bogdanov said Moscow was drawing up action plans that could be used to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria if needed.
He said the majority of Russians living in Syria are Russian women who married Syrian men, and their children. There were no plans yet to evacuate diplomats and their families, he added.
Bogdanov admitted that Russia had lost out in the Arab Spring uprisings that swept secular autocratic regimes from power, saying there was economic damage to the national interest in the form of lost contracts.
Meanwhile, the strengthening of "radical Islamist forces" in the Arab World risked having a negative effect in Russia's mainly Muslim Northern Caucasus and the neighboring states of Central Asia, he said.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Washington was now betting on an "armed victory" by rebels in the conflict after U.S. President Barack Obama's recognition of the opposition on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the leader of the Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Moaz al-Khatib said on Thursday that the people of Syria are no longer in need of foreign forces' intervention to topple the president.
“The opposition will discuss several offers with Assad about handing over the presidency and fleeing the country,” al-Khatib announced, adding that they will not give any guarantees before they perceive a serious step taken by Syria's president.
13 December 2012, 12:26
44
FT
why is it when your master is falling you launch an aggression against me?
are you so disoriented?
13 December 2012, 13:11
48
I for one have no illusions m8 will still be there after the fall of assad regime, but they will be weaker, and more apt to compromise, realizing that Lebanon is for Lebanese.
at the same time, I do hope we can avoid a civil war due to the weapons of hizbushaitan.
btw, that does not explain your aggressivity towards me!.
you are apparently so disoriented...... I pity you.
13 December 2012, 13:11
32
I for one have no illusions m8 will still be there after the fall of assad regime, but they will be weaker, and more apt to compromise, realizing that Lebanon is for Lebanese.
at the same time, I do hope we can avoid a civil war due to the weapons of hizbushaitan.
btw, that does not explain your aggressivity towards me!.
you are apparently so disoriented...... I pity you.
13 December 2012, 13:28
44
well said geha... we have repeatedly said we are not here to remove m8.. only the weapons they carry which gives them an unfair edge in deciding the politics of lebanon.
13 December 2012, 13:30
00
I have no clue who this Geha is , but he seems to be right on this one.
Why shooting him down?
It will be absurd that Hizb will pack and leave after Assad's fall as absurd as it is that it will stay the same!
Hizb has already lost whatever sunni arab support it gather and it will be confined to a much smaller area of influence.
The muslim brotherhood (and salafi equivalents) may step in to fill the gap in facing Israel when the shia'as pull out.
13 December 2012, 14:59
32
FT, I have to agree with Geha here. When Assad falls, M8 will still be here, but will be normal size. Hopefully just big enough to prevent hariri and co from stealing the country, but not strong enough to continue stealing it themselves.
What should rise now is a strong centrist pragmatic current.
13 December 2012, 12:40
10
"The fighting will become even more intense, and you will lose tens of thousands and, perhaps, hundreds of thousands of people,"
Wow what a good conclusion after nearly 2 years Mr Mikhail Bogdanov, why you didn't care and you used your veto rights three times against a resolution draft at the united nations? Why you didn't care and support Assad with arms to use it against the Syrians people ?
And of course if you keep helping Assad the war will take longer that it has to. So keep your bloody fingers and your experts out of Syria and let Syrians decide their own future.
For me you are looking for your interest in the period after Assad.
13 December 2012, 12:59
04
I'll give bashar the benefit of doubt, and say he still has control...
loool
13 December 2012, 13:25
52
FT im sure you've heard the quote: "Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."
Geha's predictions are the idea. geha himself and his brain are people. you deliberately choose to discuss geha and disregard his idea, which is way more relevant.
need i say more?
14 December 2012, 00:12
00
rudy you forgot one last group, the brain dead bobbleheads that need a senile army deserter to tell them what to discus and what their opinions should be about the discussion although this group seem to be getting smaller but more ridiculous.
13 December 2012, 14:02
16
Bashar will go down in history as the stupidest president Syria ever had. Even hassouna warned him against using violence and quick reform.. But, no . . He thought he was untouchable! From the very beginning, every time his shabiha killed a citizen, a 1000 rebels were born!
13 December 2012, 14:15
24
A Russian backflip is now too late and will not be able to reconcile with the Syrian people for at least a generation. Also no Assad era debts will be serviced after.
13 December 2012, 15:05
24
wyno nasrocrap "nothing is going on in Homs"...wayno auon "this will be over next week" waynon M8 .. "ASSad is still in control in Syria"...
13 December 2012, 15:25
10
Tuesday according to Sheikh el Kizebine !!! Faja2nakoun Mo Ya FT ???
hahahhahahahhahahhaaaha
Mouwaten ?Where are you mate????
13 December 2012, 16:39
00
"The fighting will become even more intense, and you will lose tens of thousands and, perhaps, hundreds of thousands of people,"
Wow what a good conclusion after nearly 2 years Mr Mikhail Bogdanov, why you didn't care and you used your veto rights three times against a resolution draft at the united nations? Why you didn't care and support Assad with arms to use it against the Syrians people ?
And of course if you keep helping Assad the war will take longer that it has to. So keep your bloody fingers and your experts out of Syria and let Syrians decide their own future.
For me you are looking for your interest in the period after Assad.
13 December 2012, 16:43
00
Flame Thrower is right: In fact, Russia did compromise a lot, by not taking a more salient and belligerent stance! However, the other parties (US...etc) might be playing a loosing card if the outcome would be another libya, iraq, and afghanistan, based on factual trends...Moreover, statistics show that the most recent killings in afghanistan were mostly done by soldiers and police trained by the occupying forces...
13 December 2012, 17:04
23
Hello??? Why didn't he think that way a year ago?
It took 40,000 dead for that? Assad has a lot of blood on his hand.
13 December 2012, 17:18
10
NOOOO! Really! But didn't Pre. Butchar Assad gain control a year and a month ago Tuesday? Still I thought for sure with all those winning Hezbollah members with tiger blood Jehading all over the place the Syrian regime would be in complete control by now.
13 December 2012, 18:35
12
Assad will leave when there is no one left in Syria. He is not depending on any outside help or support. He is dead if he stops now, so really he has nothing to lose but prolong his time.
13 December 2012, 19:18
25
F.t, you r obv too young. The M8 will not be the same after the fall of the criminal bashar, and many will go kiss rebel feet, frankieh already started his U turn few days ago. Lebanese politicians are v good good at switching sides, ask michele aoun. It is too naieve of you to think that business will remain as usual in leb, whether you like it or not the new rising force on the region are the suni arabs and making them enemies is not smart one bit.
13 December 2012, 19:19
23
Putin has no choice but to support assad because in many ways they r alike.
13 December 2012, 19:52
21
Syrian jihadists, including al Qaeda's Al Nusrah Front, form Mujahideen Shura Council
On the same day the US government announced that al Qaeda in Iraq's Al Nusrah Front was a terrorist organization, Al Nusrah and nine other jihadist groups banded together in the Syrian province of Deir al Zour and formed a Mujahideen Shura Council.
Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/12/syrian_jihadists_inc.php#ixzz2ExIZZESH
13 December 2012, 19:55
32
One more reason why the Damascus Turd should be flushed down:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_c2#/video/world/2012/12/13/damon-syria-heroic-measures.cnn
13 December 2012, 20:11
00
Cannot wait for next Tuesday to come !!!!
We alongside The general FT and Mouwateh will celebrate.
Capullos. Sin verguenza
13 December 2012, 21:05
00
I hope that bashar gets khaddafi's end very soon - have in tried in the hague ?? are you kidding - he should be captured, dragged through the streets of every major city in Syria, then summararily executed!
13 December 2012, 22:04
34
hezbis are already making deals with future to minimize the aftermath of bashar s fall....
14 December 2012, 05:39
21
Assad ordered the murder of many Lebanese and will continue to do so until he is killed. If you were Lebanese you would know that.
