حركة جنبلاط العربية بلا بركة

He has been moving slowly, he is March 12.5 now another 1.5 points and he is back there

Unbelievable some media still claim Jumblat has good political antenna. Evidences suggest his political antennas are the worst of any politician. History's verdict will be harsh on him because it will ultimately be written by democratic youth now being oppressed by the likes of Ahmadinajad and Assad. Jumblat shifted from M14 to Hizbollahstan during the Green Revolution in Iran when the Basij were brutally suppressing peaceful demonstrators seeking freedom from a cruel regime practicing medieval Grand Inquisition. He likewise supported Assad's criminal regime as we was brutally suppressing those fed up with his tyranny and corruption. Worst, he led a coup d'etat on freedom and democracy in Lebanon by allowing the Basij to form a Vichy government and control state institutions. Every Druze knows that the future of Druze and all minorities in Lebanon is linked to freedom and democracy and Hizb is incompatible with both. Jumblat has chosen to be a partner in crime with tyrants and Basij.

Jumblat is famous in predicting the developments on the ground and acting based on his personal and community interests. His recent switch to march 8 is but a flagrant manifestation of this. But while Gebran Basil could meet the president on his last visit to Syria, Jumblat's meeting with Syria's AVP is an indication that the Syrian authorities are sensing that he's planning to make a reverse move to march 14 as and when the situation in Syria tips in favor of the revolution over there. The reason though why they have not dumped him yet is simply due to the government situation in Lebanon which relies on Jumblat's support.

Although many people don't approve of Jumblat's moves, I simply prefer him to Aoun whose moves are all hate sourced and uncalculated. I also think that Aoun is childish in all his behavior over the years. I wonder how could such an immature person muster up so many MPs in the parliament and still have many die hard supporters.

Jumblat is smart.

I have been tracking Jumblat's moves ever since he deflected to the March 8 camp and got the majority in the hands of Hizbullah. I do believe that his moves were justifiable given the power that Hizbullah has at the moment and the ability of Syria and Hizbullah to target anyone that doesn't conform to their camp. However, I think Jumblat's heart while not entirely still with March 14, is somewhere in between. He's not very happy for his move but knows that it was necessitated for his protection and the protection of his Druze sect. lebanon is a very coomplex country, full of various sects with each one working to his own benefit. Jumblat is not any different but he's smarter than others.

But while he met Syria AVP instead of Bashar while Gebran Basil met with Bashar is an indication that Bashar is not trustful of Jumblat who changes his stance based on the ground's movements. This is by no means an indication that Aoun doesn't. Aoun is in essence more hate driven though.

I expect the tip over to be completed just before the 2013 Parliament elections.

I understand perfectly too the reasons behind Joumblatt' s move although I don' t agree at all with them: Number one the article of the Der Spiegel, which took him off guard,and that show how sneaky and stealth Hezbollah has been navigating under the radar , and sending as little signal as possible (over noise!) during the build up of the inquiry of the STL, although they (someone, certainly the Sayyed!) knew exactly how close Bellemrare findings were to trapping them at all times. Second the election of Obama, whereby the USS cole under Obama would not sail as easily to the lebanese shores as under Bush, and clearly Obama was giving a new chance to Assad and starting with a fresh mind with the ME file. Therefore any american hard protection was out of the question, and Feltman couldn' t be of any help in that matter. Thirdly of course, the power (criminal demonstration) coup in may 2008 which was a declaration of intention ' to whom it may concern ' and which Joumblatt

which Joumblatt read carefully. In my view, this and subsequently other incidents, revealed the Hezb, as a truly militia if not terorist organisation, whereby the use or possession where from thereon the same.
However whether you are the leader of a 20000 strong community, or 500000 you stand the same threats when facing a brutal criminal machine such as is proven in the case of Hezbollah every day. So Joumblatt tried to appease them by giving them power, hoping this will lessen the likeliness they trun violent, since they could fight directly or through their more acceptable surrogates, by holding the levers of power, the coming indictment against them . Whether this appeasement works or not remains to be seen. Could he have had a more neutral position while keeping M14 in power? I think he could have, while holding threatening to trigger the goverment downfall had it taken then a specific decision too detrimental to the Hezb. In any case, by doing what he' s done, he is

turn the table and the chess board over the players heads. And that will not spare neither Joumblatt nor the country !

Jumblatt went to Damascus as an 14er, heard some pretty gruesome threats, came back as an 8er again.. is it that hard to figure out?

Best CEO on earth...he is protecting his business and not the Druze for sure!