UN says Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan face socioeconomic downturn from Gaza war

Each day the Gaza war continues, the ripple effect to neighboring Arab countries will have lasting socioeconomic setbacks, two U.N. agencies have warned.

Preliminary findings of a new rapid assessment by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) show that human development in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan is set to fall back.

Should the war complete its current third month, initial estimates show that 230,000 additional people will fall into poverty in neighboring Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, by the end of 2023, as the cost of the war in terms of aggregated lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may amount to up to about US$10.3 billion or 2.3 percent for these three countries.

“These countries were already experiencing economic challenges because of COVID-19 and a host of global economic crises, including those precipitated by the war in Ukraine. And we should not lose sight, that the spillover effects from the war in Gaza in trade, tourism, and livelihoods, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and putting at risk the modest gains that these neighboring countries have made to put their economies and societies back on track,” said Abdallah Al Dardari, Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States, UNDP.

Authors of the assessment estimate that, if the war prolongs beyond three months, the socioeconomic impacts to several neighboring countries will intensify. The upper bound estimates predict that close to half a million people are expected to fall into poverty and the aggregate total GDP loss would hit US$18 billion or 4 percent for the three countries, in 2024.