Will there be a 60-day truce in Lebanon?

W460

Senior Israeli officials say the negotiations on a cease-fire deal in Lebanon are "in advanced stages," according to Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

White House special envoy Amos Hochstein may travel to Israel and Lebanon before the November 5 U.S. presidential elections to attempt to reach final agreements, the report says.

If the talks advance, the Israeli army will "begin to withdraw most of its troops and redeploy forces in south Lebanon," leaving areas where "their mission to remove the threat from the Radwan forces has been completed," the report adds.

The Israeli troops will likely remain "only where there is tactical significance."

The officials in Israel said that Lebanon's situation has "completely changed" after the Israeli offensive and that "there is an agreement in Beirut to disconnect both the Lebanon and Gazan fronts."

They stressed the fact that "fighting would continue while negotiations are ongoing and until they are completed."

Western intelligence sources believe Iran would allow Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, and perhaps even encourage it, even if the fighting in Gaza does not end.

The Israeli officials said a cease-fire agreement would begin with a 60-day acclimation period during which Hezbollah and the Israeli army withhold their fire and the Lebanese Army would deploy to the south, while a new mechanism to supervise the region will be considered but there will be no new resolution passed in the U.N. Security Council.

French and American officials said recently that Hezbollah, which suffered severe blows and lost all of its leadership, has been bolstered in the past two weeks by the growing number of casualties among Israeli soldiers.

"This is an opportunity that must not be missed," they said.

The proposed deal to be agreed by Israel, Lebanon, the U.S. and others, includes three components. The first is a wider implementation of U.N. Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 war, that would ensure there would be no Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani River, and at a significant distance from the Israeli settlement of Metula.

Lebanon's army is to deploy 5,000 to 10,000 troops along the border. UNIFIL forces will be increased and perhaps some will be replaced by French, British and German forces, the report says.

Israel has approached those countries to see if they would agree, the report adds.

The second component is the establishment of "an international mechanism to supervise the area and consider violation claims by any of the sides."

Israeli officials said the U.S. has agreed that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, for example by building fortifications south of the Litani, and the Lebanese Army or UNIFIL fail to quickly respond, the Israeli army would be able to take prolonged action to remove the threat.

Israel has also asked for a letter from U.S. President Joe Biden stating Israel's "right to self-defense," making it clear that the Israeli army would be able to act.

The third component in the agreement being negotiated is preventing Hezbollah from rearming. This means blocking military means, to be identified as banned, from being brought in by air, land or sea.

"Russia expressed a willingness to assist in implementing the agreement and is destined to play a part in stabilizing the region in Lebanon and Syria," the report says.

"The Russians will have a special role in preventing further escalation," a foreign source said.

Israel will engage with the Kremlin directly and is interested in Russian participation, in the hopes that it would contribute to the agreement's implementation and also to reduce its dependence on U.S. involvement, the report says.

Netanyahu emissaries have been trying to enlist other countries to join supervision roles in the pending agreement. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has been working with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed the matter with Hochstein, the report says.

Netanyahu’s office meanwhile denied a similar Channel 12 report that Israel and the U.S. are in discussions over a plan that would see Israel refrain from expanding its ground operation in southern Lebanon while the White House would support Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon in the future to prevent Hezbollah from rearming.

Talks on the matter have taken place between Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, according to that report.

However, Netanyahu's office told The Times of Israel that the report is “total fiction.”

An Israeli source had told The Times of Israel that Netanyahu was eager to wrap up fighting in Lebanon with a diplomatic arrangement that locks in Israel’s demands that Hezbollah remove itself from southern Lebanon.

SourceNaharnet
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