Lebanon marks 20 years since Rafik Hariri killed as power balance shifts

Lebanon on Friday marks 20 years since former prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination amid seismic political changes that have weakened Hezbollah and its backers and could herald a comeback for Hariri's son Saad.

Rafik Hariri, a towering political figure, had resigned as premier when a suicide bombing targeted his convoy in Beirut, killing him and 21 others on February 14, 2005.

In 2022, a U.N.-backed court sentenced two Hezbollah members in absentia to life imprisonment for the bombing that killed him, though the group has refused to hand them over.

His son Saad, who served three times as prime minister, is based in the United Arab Emirates but has again returned for the annual commemorations for his father.

This time, he is back in a changed Lebanon.

The Hezbollah-Israel war weakened the Iran-backed group that has long dominated Lebanon's political life, and Hezbollah's Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad has been ousted.

Hariri has called on his supporters to gather near his father's burial site in downtown Beirut starting at 10:00 am (0800 GMT).

A source close to Hariri said he is expected to deliver a speech addressing developments "in Lebanon and the region" and "draw up a roadmap for the future," though he may not resume political activities right away.

"His supporters are calling on him to return to political life," said the source, who was not authorized to brief the media and requested anonymity.

Until early 2022, Hariri was Lebanon's main Sunni Muslim leader in a country where political power is shared along sectarian lines.

Once enjoying strong support from Saudi Arabia, Hariri's relationship with the regional heavyweight deteriorated in the face of his conciliatory attitude toward Hezbollah.

In 2017, Hariri resigned as prime minister in a shock address from Riyadh, citing Iran's "grip" on Lebanon through Hezbollah and prompting accusations he was being held against his will.

French President Emmanuel Macron had to intervene to secure his return to Lebanon, where Hariri rescinded his resignation.

A reluctant politician, Hariri resigned again as prime minister after unprecedented nationwide protests broke out in 2019 demanding the wholesale overhaul of Lebanon's political class.

Then in 2022, in a tearful announcement, he said he suspended his political activities and that of his party, citing "Iranian influence" among other reasons for his decision.

The source close to him told AFP these reasons had now "vanished".

For decades, Hezbollah was Lebanon's dominant political force, but its arsenal and leadership were decimated during the war while Assad's ouster in neighboring Syria cut the group's vital arms supply lines.

- 'New chance' -

In January, former army chief Joseph Aoun was elected president after a more than two-year vacuum.

He had been widely seen as the preferred choice of the United States, as well as Saudi Arabia.

This month, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who had been presiding judge at the International Court of Justice, formed a government.

"Lebanon has been given a new chance as Iranian influence is declining and the international community has returned," the source said.

Riyadh has recently retaken an interest in Lebanese politics after distancing itself for years over Hezbollah's influence.

"Saudi Arabia seeks a strong, organized Sunni leadership," said Imad Salamey, head of the International and Political Studies Department at the Lebanese American University.

"If Hariri can present himself as that figure, his return would serve both his interests and those of the kingdom," Salamey added.

His father's assassination anniversary "will serve as an opportunity to assess his ability to mobilize support and reassert his leadership within the Sunni community," he said.

Hariri was thrust into the political limelight following his father's assassination but always struggled to fill his shoes.

His father's killing, widely attributed to Damascus and ally Hezbollah at the time, triggered massive protests that drove Syrian troops out of Lebanon after 29 years of occupation.

Syria was the dominant power in Lebanon for three decades under the Assad family, with president Hafez al-Assad intervening in its 1975-1990 civil war.

Rafik Hariri was a billionaire and the architect of Lebanon's reconstruction era after the 1975-1990 civil war.