Barrack urges Lebanon to act, warns of 'major confrontation' if it doesn't

U.S. envoy Tom Barrack has urged Lebanon to act on the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament, warning that there might be a “major confrontation” between Israel and Hezbollah if Beirut does not take serious steps.

Barrack voiced his remarks in a lengthy and “personal” opinion editorial on the situations in Syria and Lebanon.

Below is the full text of Barrack’s op-ed as published on his official X account:

“A Personal Perspective – Syria and Lebanon Are the Next Pieces for Levant Peace

By Ambassador Tom Barrack

October 13, 2025, will be remembered as a defining moment in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. In Sharm el-Sheikh, world leaders did more than celebrate the release of hostages, a ceasefire, and the commencement of peace negotiations. They gathered to endorse President Donald J. Trump’s bold, twenty-point vision for renewal, reconstruction, and shared prosperity across the region.

Under his leadership, decades of fear and stagnation began to give way to purpose and optimism. Arab, Muslim, and Western nations joined in a single endeavor: to replace paralysis with progress, and isolation with inclusion.

For the first time in a century, a genuine consensus emerged – an understanding that the Middle East, long divided by tribe and faith and scarred by colonial legacy, could now weave a new tapestry of cooperation. What began as a truce in Gaza evolved into something much greater: the first tesserae in a renewed mosaic of partnership. Under President Trump’s stewardship, stability is no longer enforced through fear but envisioned through shared opportunity; peace is no longer a pause in violence but a platform for prosperity. No doubt Gaza, that has been plagued by violence, will continue to be punctuated with mishaps, speed bumps and violations of trust in spite of the great strides made last week. Nevertheless, the regional Nation States for the first time in decades have unanimously condemned terrorist practices within their region.

Syria: The Missing Piece of Peace

Yet the next two vital pieces of this architecture of peace remain incomplete. First, Syria: fractured and weary after years of war, it stands as both a symbol and test of whether this new regional order can truly endure. No tapestry of peace can be whole while one of the world’s oldest civilizations lies in ruin. The winds of reconciliation that began in Gaza must now cross Israel’s northern frontier and breathe life into Syria’s redemption.

The U.S. Senate has already demonstrated foresight by voting to repeal the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act – a sanctions regime that served its moral purpose against the previous, treacherous Assad regime but now suffocates a nation seeking to rebuild. The House of Representatives must now follow suit, restoring to the Syrian people their right to work, to trade, and to hope.

When Congress enacted the Caesar Act in 2019, the world faced atrocities of an unforgivable scale. Sanctions were the moral instrument of that moment. They froze assets, cut off illicit funding, and isolated a brutal regime. But Syria after Dec 8, 2024, with the inauguration of a new Syrian government, is neither Syria of 2019 nor the government that ruled it previously. Its leadership has embarked on reconciliation, having restoring ties with Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Europe, and even engaging in border discussions with Israel.

On May 13, 2025, in Riyadh, President Trump announced his intent to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria – a historic pivot from coercion to cooperation. That promise became policy on June 30, when an Executive Order formally revoked most Syria sanctions, effective July 1. These twin actions transformed U.S. policy from punishment to partnership, signaling to investors and allies alike that America now stood for rebuilding, not restraining.

Repeal sanctions is not charity; it is strategy. It unlocks the ability of allies and private investors to rebuild Syria’s power grids, water systems, schools, and hospitals. It unleashes one of the most consequential reconstruction efforts since post-war Europe. Economic vitality remains the surest antidote to extremism; commerce is the bridge from conflict to coexistence. The lingering sanctions no longer punish despots, they punish the teachers, farmers, and shopkeepers who must power Syria’s recovery.

Repeal, then, is not appeasement. It is realism. It aligns policy with facts on the ground and with the aspirations of a region ready to turn the page. Twenty-six senior Christian clerics from Syria have appealed to Congress to end the sanctions, warning that they are now one of the principal causes of the shrinking Christian presence in their homeland. Their plea is a moral echo of the region’s changing tide.

President Trump and the Senate have already shown courage. The House must now complete the act of statesmanship. To repeal Caesar is not to forget history, it is to shape it anew, replacing the lexicon of retribution with the language of renewal.

The Gaza Peace Summit was not symbolic theater, it was the overture to a new symphony of cooperation grounded in energy integration, economic interdependence, and shared human aspiration. The release of hostages, the cessation of hostilities, and the commitments made at Sharm el-Sheikh have laid a foundation that now must be constantly monitored, amended and administered in Gaza because there is no doubt that this is a process rather than an event. The rhythm of dialogue, however, now needs to be extended northward – to Syria, and ultimately to Lebanon. The Abraham Accords for the entire region is the true North Star.

For the first time in living memory, political will, economic necessity, and public hope are aligned and all that stands in the way of progress is a hostile and treacherous Iranian IRGC leadership and its proxies. President Trump has offered the region a renewed covenant, one that exchanges hostility for harmony, despair for development, and isolation for shared destiny. The Caesar Act achieved its purpose. Now, as the President has urged, it is time to “give Syria a chance.”

Now is the time for Congress to act in repealing the Caesar Act.

Lebanon: The Second Frontier

As Syria reclaims stability with its neighbors, including Israel and Türkiye, it forms the first leg of Israel’s northern security framework. The second leg must be the disarmament of Hizballah within Lebanon and the beginning of security and border discussions with Israel.

The Biden Administration-sponsored 2024 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, brokered through U.S., French, and UN intermediaries, sought to halt escalation but ultimately failed. There was no direct agreement between Israel and Hizballah due to the fact that Lebanon still views dealing with Israel as a crime and consequently no real mechanism for enforcement exists. Iran’s continued funding of Hizballah militia in spite of sanctions and a divided Lebanese Council of Ministers delivering mixed messages to its own Lebanese Armed Forces, who lack the funding and authority to act. The result was a fragile calm without peace, an army without authority and a government without control.

Israel today still occupies five tactical positions along the “Blue Line,” maintaining early-warning capacity while conducting daily strikes against Hizballah depots. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government’s principle of “One Country, One Military” remains more aspiration than reality, constrained by Hizballah’s political dominance and the fear of civil unrest.

Early this year, the United States offered the “One More Try” plan, a framework for phased disarmament, verified compliance, and economic incentives under U.S.A. and France supervision. Lebanon declined to adopt it due to Hizballah representation and influence in the Lebanese Council of Ministers. Rather the Lebanese Cabinet and Council of Ministers are trapped in sectarian paralysis and are attempting to make a good faith step forward, which Israel has completely discounted. The Israelis have simply said the rhetoric does not match reality.

As Damascus stabilizes, Hizballah grows more isolated. The militia’s foreign control undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, deters investment, and erodes public confidence and is a constant red flag to Israel. But the incentives for action now outweigh the costs of inaction: regional partners are ready to invest, provided Lebanon reclaims the monopoly on legitimate force solely under the Lebanese Armed Forces. Should Beirut continue to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.

Disarming Hizballah is thus not only Israel’s security imperative; it is Lebanon’s opportunity for renewal. For Israel, it means a secure northern frontier. For Lebanon, it means sovereignty restored and the chance for economic revival. For the United States, it fulfills the President’s peace by prosperity framework while minimizing U.S. exposure. For the broader region, it removes an essential Iranian regime proxy alongside of Hamas and accelerates Arab modernization and integration.

To that end, the United States has tried to usher Lebanon towards a peaceful solution with Israel, through incentives rather than imposition linking reconstruction aid from the Gulf States to measurable milestones, ensuring verification (without enforcement authority) through U.S., France and UN oversight, and strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces through targeted training and support (the United States just this month committed over 200 million additional dollars to the Lebanese Armed Forces). Washington was willing to provide diplomatic cover for Hizballah’s peaceful political transition, coordinate regional statements connecting investment to progress, and assist Beirut in presenting disarmament not as surrender, but as sovereignty reclaimed. All these initiatives have stalled while the rest of the region is accelerating towards expulsion of Iran’s terrorist proxies.

Syria’s courageous moves toward a border agreement and hopefully future cooperation mark the first steps toward securing Israel’s northern frontier. Hizballah’s disarmament must be the second. Lebanon now faces a defining choice: to seize the path of national renewal or remain mired in paralysis and decline.

The United States must support Beirut to quickly separate from the Iranian backed Hizballah militia and achieve alignment with the anti-terrorist rhythm of its region before the new wave of zero tolerance for terrorist organizations consumes it.

If Beirut fails to act, Hizballah’s military arm will inevitably face major confrontation with Israel at a moment of Israel’s strength and Iran backed Hizballah’s weakest point. Correspondingly, its political wing will undoubtedly be confronted with potential isolation as it approaches the May 2026 elections.

If Hizballah comes under serious military attack from Israel and faces territorial, political, or reputational losses, it will almost certainly seek to postpone the May 2026 elections to preserve its power base and regroup. Elections in such a moment would expose its weakened standing, risk electoral setbacks for its allies, and embolden rival factions to challenge its dominance within Lebanon’s fragile sectarian system. By invoking “national security” and “wartime instability,” Hizballah could justify a delay as a means to maintain unity and protect the Shiite community from perceived external exploitation. In reality, postponement would buy time – to rebuild militarily, re-organize politically, and renegotiate the post-war balance of power before facing the electorate.

Postponing the 2026 elections under the pretext of war would ignite major chaos within Lebanon, fracturing an already fragile political system and reigniting sectarian distrust. Many Lebanese factions – particularly Christian, Sunni, and reformist blocs – would view the delay as an unconstitutional power grab by Hizballah to entrench its control and avoid accountability for the war’s devastation. Such a move would likely paralyze Parliament, deepen the government vacuum, and trigger nationwide protests reminiscent of the 2019 uprising – but this time amid armed tension and economic collapse. The perception that one militia can suspend democracy could potentially erode public confidence in the state, invite regional interference, and risk pushing Lebanon from crisis into outright institutional breakdown.

Thanks to the momentum of the President’s “20-Point Plan,” the path toward an expanded Abraham Accord has never been clearer without regard to what may be a bumpy road to the Hamas resolution. What was once aspirational is rapidly becoming attainable. Iran stands terminally weakened – politically, economically, and morally – while Saudi Arabia now stands at the precipice of formal accession. As Riyadh moves, others will follow. Soon thereafter, the nations of the Levant may find alignment irresistible, drawn not by pressure but by prosperity. It is an extraordinary achievement to witness peace yielding dividends and prosperity taking root among nations that only a week ago were adversaries. History will remember this as the week when a century of conflict began to give way to a generation of cooperation. Let us keep in mind that cooperation is merely a path towards peace and understanding, not a guarantee. We must all continue to work tirelessly on allowing these intricate pieces to the mosaic to finally find their place next to one another.

President Trump’s newly appointed and extremely capable Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, arrives in Beirut next month to help Lebanon steer a steady course through these complex issues.

Now is the time for Lebanon to act.”